0-3; -9.02pts (system plays: 0-7-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Nick Watney to beat Webb Simpson -105 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 5 Course form is very important at the Plantation Course and that is enough to look to oppose Simpson early in this event and particularly with Watney who, in his previous starts on this course (2008 & 2010), finished 1st and 2nd respectively after the opening round. There is clearly no doubt that he is always well-prepared for Hawaii, both on the course and on the surf. It should be the same this week, particularly as the two-time winner last year arrives here under the radar, presumably due to his disappointing performances in the Majors. No such time away from the limelight for Simpson, who won only as many times as Watney last season, but who had a breakout season and kept playing until the very end of the year in the off-season events. A let-down from last year's drama and an unfamiliar course makes Simpson a player to oppose on day one. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Baddeley tb Woodland +100 (L); Toms tb Woodland -105 (L); Toms tb Bradley K +120 (L); Haas tb Simpson +100 (L); Haas tb Bradley K -111 (L)] No round 2 plays. Round 3 play (2pts): Sean O'Hair to beat Harrison Frazar -118 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 4 Finishes of 4th in 2009 and 2010 in his last two visits point to an aptitude for this course from O'Hair and after an opening level-par round, he played much better yesterday being 5-under-par following his double-bogey on the 3rd hole. Frazar is making his course debut and, while he also lies in the top-10 with O'Hair, he has far worse than O'Hair from tee-to-green so looks less likely to maintain his top-10 position. Round 4 play (4pts): Rory Sabbatini to beat Chris Kirk -114 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1 Impressed by Sabbatini's play since he opened with a triple-bogey on the first hole of the second round thanks to a two-shot penalty for arriving 20 seconds too late on the first tee. Instead of losing his cool, he has been 11-under-par for his last 32 holes and, while he can't win from this position, his third runners-up finish in this event is not totally out of the question. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Wilson tb Piercy -110 (L); Wilson tb Points +105 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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