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5-7; -11.35pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts): Charlie Wi to beat Tom Pernice -163 @ Paddy Power LOST by 3
In his last four starts, Pernice has missed three cuts on the PGA Tour and finished 37th in a Champions Tour event, Currently outside the cut-line, he looks set to miss another cut, so I'll make a rare play and back a 1st round leader in the 2nd round. This will be the 3rd time that Wi has held the 1st round lead on the PGA Tour in this year alone ... in those two events - AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and Arnold Palmer Invitational - he shot sub-70 scores in rd2 and was still in the lead after 36 holes. Chez Reavie to beat Matt Jones -120 @ Bet365 and Paddy Power LOST by 10
Reavie shot the best score of the day on the Magnolia course and that puts him in a good position to secure his Tour Card for next year if he can take advantage of the easier course today. He has finished ahead of Jones in seven of eleven common events in 2012, including eight of eleven 2nd round scores. Ryuiji Imada to beat Roland Thatcher +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 7
Easy to oppose Thatcher who has missed his last six cuts. He did shoot 69 on the easier Palm course yesterday, but should once again be under pressure today around the harder course as he seeks to finish ahead of Imada for the first time since July. Russell Knox to beat Scott Stallings -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Knox has been in very good form recently, finishing 7th, 13th, 9th and 27th in his last four starts. He also tends to play particularly well in the 2nd round, shooting a higher score than Stallings in that round just twice in 13 common events in 2012. Shane Bertsch to beat Patrick Sheehan -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Two players out of form, but moreso Sheehan than Bertsch - in October, his scoring average was 73.67, which was 1.5 shots higher than Bertsch. Both shot 69 around the easier course yesterday, but that should be reversed around Magnolia with Sheehan's poorer form being more exposed on the tougher course. Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated): Brendon De Jonge to beat Robert Garrigus +104 @ Pinnacle [available generally] [4pts] TIED Brian Harman to beat Camilo Villegas -107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and The Greek] LOST by 3 Kevin Chappell to beat Boo Weekley -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and The Greek] TIED Charlie Wi to beat Harris English +107 @ @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3 Kevin Chappell to beat Brian Gay -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 3 Round 4 plays (2pts): Tommy Gainey to beat Scott Stallings -138 @ Paddy Power LOST by 7
Currently 5th on the leaderboard, Gainey has a very good record when in contention. In the eight occasions that he has started the final round in the top-5, he has shot under 70 in seven of those eight occasions. Having also won last time out, I expect to see him continue his impressive performances when in this position. Tim Herron to beat Tom Gillis +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365] TIED
Yesterday's 67 saw Herron move up to 16th on the leaderboard and improve his projected Money List ranking to 133rd, up from 136th at the start of the week. He will need to improve a little more to get into the top-125, but this is a course on which he has only missed one cut in his career; Gillis has played here only twice previously and has yet to finish in the top-50. Tommy Gainey to beat Camilo Villegas -120 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365 and BetVictor] LOST by 2
Villegas' projected Money List ranking is one ahead of Herron - 132nd - after the 3rd round, but whereas it is easier to Herron to improve his Money List position as he is 16th on the leaderboard, it is much harder for Villegas who is 5th. Given his temperament and that more precarious position, I expect Villegas to fare worse than Herron today, especially as he hasn't recorded a single top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this year. On that basis, opposing Villegas with Gainey is a straighforward task. Robert Garrigus to beat Charlie Wi -125 @ Stan James WON by 3
Both players in the top-5, but it easy to back Garrigus in this position. Not only is he the 2010 Champion at Disney, but he has finished ahead of Wi in each of their seven previous events. It was back in June that Wi last finished ahead of Garrigus in any Tour event. Robert Garrigus to beat Henrik Stenson -125 @ Paddy Power WON by 5
Stenson should be a tougher opponent than Wi, but in an event in which the short-game is key, this is not one of the Swede's strengths. |
