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2-1; +1.90pts (system plays: 7-3-1) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (2pts): Jason Dufner to beat Sergio Garcia -130 @ 5Dimes WON by 9 [unofficial rd2 system plays: Na tb Huh -125 (L); Ogilvy tb Palmer +105 (L); Na tb Perez +100 (W); Singh tb Bae -125 (W)] Round 3 play (4pts): Trevor Immelman to beat Aaron Baddeley +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365 and Expekt] WON by 4
Both players in indifferent form - both has missed two of their last three cuts - and make the weekend down in 42nd place. Given that they are 12 shots off the lead, neither is in contention to win this week, so the issue is how do they play when so low on the leaderboard. Over the last two years, Immelman has started the weekend outside the top-40 on 11 occasions and improved his leaderboard position in the 3rd on eight of those 11 occasions (and one where he stayed in the same position). Given that it is easier to move up the leaderboard when you are nearer the bottom of it, that is to be expected. But for Baddeley, over the last two years, he has improved his position in only one of his 11 occasions. That shows a clear difference in attitude (or other factors) when Badds is out of contention at the weekend. Round 4 play (4pts): Jonathan Byrd to beat Tommy Gainey -163 @ Paddy Power [available generally] LOST by 3
Easy to oppose a player who is last (189th) in the PGA Tour's 'Final Round Scoring Average' category with an average 4th round score of 77.50. Both currently lie 7th after three rounds and twice this year Gainey has started the final round in the top-10, but then shot 78 in the Houston Open to finish 42nd and 80 in The Heritage to finish 52nd. Little wonder that he has finished an event ahead of Byrd just twice in their last 15 common events. And while both players are in 7th place, they have arrived there in different directions: each of Gainey's rounds this week have been higher than the previous one; each of Byrd's round have been lower than the previous one. At 180th on the Money List, all the pressure is on 'Two Gloves' to convert these top-10 situations into money in order to keep his Card for next season. This year, he has shown that he has struggled badly under that pressure. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Blixt tb Kraft -138 (W); Johnson tb Van Pelt -110 (W); Furyk tb Oosthuizen -116 (W); Byrd tb Blixt +106 (W); Palmer tb Huh -120 (T); Johnson tb Dufner +100 (W); Chappell tb Gainey -114 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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