|
1-2; -6.20pts (system plays: 12-2-0) Round 1 play (2pts): John Senden to beat Bud Cauley +100 @ Bet365 WON by 2
None of the top-5 in each of the last two years at TPC Boston were making their debut on this course and just one of the top-5 in each of the previous three years were making their debut here, so it appears unlikely that Cauley will maintain his impressive form this week. Senden has played in every Deutsche Bank Championship so far (it started in 2003) and has made the cut every time. Also in good form and with a 8-4-0 h2h record against Cauley this season, the Australian should fare better this week. [unofficial rd1 system play: Kuchar tb Bradley +100 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Tiger Woods to beat Dustin Johnson -138 @ Paddy Power TIED
I'd expect Woods to beat Johnson more than 15 times out of every 19, as suggested by these odds. For example, he leads Johnson 8-2-0 h2h in round 2 this year alone. Leading the field in greens in regulation, Woods was very impressive yesterday and I'd expect that to continue today. This is the fifth time that he has started round 2 inside the top-10 this year; on all four previous occasions, he has finished the day higher up the leaderboard than at the beginning of the day. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Woods tb Snedeker -170 (W); Mickelson tb Fowler -114 (W); Chalmers tb Laird -112 (W); Stricker tb Westwood +105 (W); Mickelson tb Mahan -111 (W); Stricker tb Rose -125 (W); Stricker tb Johnson +115 (L); Moore tb Noh -125 (W); Van Pelt tb Day -105 (W); Van Pelt tb Simpson +100 (L)] Round 3 play (4pts): Tiger Woods to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ 5Dimes and Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 1
Opposing McIlroy who leads this event this event by a shot with Tiger two shots back in third place. Since his victory in last U.S. Open when he moved away from the field each round, McIlroy has held the lead after 36 holes on five occasions, broke 70 just once in the 3rd round and failed to hold onto the lead in any of those five occasions - the last occasions being the St Jude Classic when he opened with 68-65 to hold a one-shot lead, as today, but then shot 72-69 to finish 7th. Tiger at plus-odds looks very good value in this situation. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Senden tb Schwartzel +105 (W); Oosthuizen tb Dufner +110 (W)] Round 4 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Adam Scott -105 @ Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 4
Frustrating week so far with unofficial system plays going 11-2, but the official plays struggling because of Tiger's repeated failings on the last hole. Looking to Stricker to make amends ... he has a very good record here - 7th, 9th, 13th, 1st and 9th from 2006-2010 - and is in good form, finishing ahead of Scott in each of their three starts since his collapse at the British Open. With both players twelve shots back and out of contention, Scott looks the player to oppose in this round: he ranks 100th in final round scoring average on the PGA Tour and Stricker has a 6-2 h2h lead over him in rd4 this year. [unofficial rd4 system play: Senden tb Hoffman -111 (W)] |
