18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

1-2; -8.00pts  (system plays: 5-2-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Camilo Villegas to beat Gary Woodland +110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Boyle Sports, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 5
The line has moved 15 cents overnight and now comes into my 'value' category. First, they are playing the North course today which will favour Villegas over Woodland as much as tomorrow's South course will favour them the other way around. The North course's very tight fairways meant that it was the toughest course for driving accuracy on Tour last year (38.9 percent). Couple that with their current driving accuracy rankings on Tour - Villegas 17th, Woodland 113th - and it is clear that the big-hitting Woodland should find it harder to find any advantage on the North course. Second, Villegas comes into this event in great form - he finished the 2011 PGA Tour season with four top-10 finishes in last five events - and he opened with a 63 to lead the Humana Challenge on day one last week; Woodland struggled to finish 24th of 27 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions when widely-tipped for that event and hasn't played since. And finally, there is their histories in this event: whereas Woodland has finished mdf and 58th in his two previous attempts and failed to break 70 on the North course, Villegas has finished 13th, 9th (U.S. Open), 3rd, and 44th in the last four years, recording 69-63-69 on the North course. In fact, he has started on the North course in each of his last three starts in this event and has ended day one in 13th, 1st and 22nd place. I don't see how he can be plus-odds on this course.

Round 2 play (4pts):

Spencer Levin to beat Kyle Stanley -125 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 8
A matchup between the two first-round leaders. They both shot 62 on the easier North course, but today will be a much sterner test on the South course even without the pressure of leading the event. Stanley has been in this position just once previously - 2011 Mayakoba Golf Classic - when he dropped from 1st to 15th on day two and then from 15th to 31st on day three as he struggled under the pressure of leading a PGA Tour event. He had a similar experience in the sole occasion that he has held the 2nd round lead - he then shot 74-75 in the 2011 Honda Classic. Levin is much more experienced in this position - he held the 1st round lead three times last year, finishing day two in 2nd, 8th and 2nd position, so he hardly wilted under the pressure on those occasions. On then there is the fact that they are playing the though South course and previous history suggests that Levin has coped with this course much better: in six previous rounds, Stanley averages 74.0; in seven previous rounds Levin averages 71.1.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Singh tb Atwal -150 (W); Snedeker tb Mickelson -120 (W); Fowler tb Haas +120 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Bill Haas to beat Camilo Villegas -111 @ Bet365  TIED
No time for write-ups today :(

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Bae tb Stanley +100 (L); Haas tb Mahan +100 (W)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Camilo Villegas to beat Ryo Ishikawa -130 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 1
Villegas recovered well from a poor start to earn a push in yesterday match, so I will back him for a second time this week to continue his good form both recently and on this course. However, this is mainly a play against Ishikawa. He lies in 11th place alongside Villegas and this will be the seventh time that he has started the final round in the top-25 in the U.S. and on every previous occasion he has finished the round further down the leaderboard than at the start of the day (with a final round average of 74.0): from 8th to 17th; 15th to 32nd; 7th to 33rd; 23rd to 41st; 16th to 42nd and 2nd to 4th.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Perez tb Ishikawa -125 (L); Rollins tb Stanley -125 (W)]