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4-1; +5.60pts No round 1 plays. No round 2 plays. Round 3 play (2pts): John Mallinger to beat Billy Horschel -110 @ BetVictor [also available @ Boyle Sports] WON by 3
At 147th in the Money List, Horschel needed a big week and at 2nd place on the leaderboard, he is currently on track to secure his Tour Card for 2013. But it is a precarious position: one shot worse and he would be right on the borderline. That puts a lot of pressure on him over the weekend. The same could also be said of Mallinger, who holds a four-shot lead in this event. Yes, he is 0-for-5 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA and Web.com Tours, but he has never been worse than 2nd after rd3 from this position - his failings have come in the final round. I'll back him to play well for one more round. Round 4 plays (2pts): Jonas Blixt to beat John Mallinger -165 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek, Carib and WSEX] WON by 4
Mallinger is 0-for-4 when starting the final round in the lead of a Tour event (one PGA Tour event - 2009 Byron Nelson Championship). The last time he was in this position - 2011 Children's Hospital Classic on the Web.com Tour - he held a two-shot lead after 54 holes, but shot 75 to finish seven shots off the pace. This is a very short price to back a player who has yet to win on Tour, so this is purely a go-against Mallinger play. Jeff Overton to beat Patrick Cantlay +100 @ SkyBet WON by 9
33rd in Scoring Average and 29th in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour, Overton is one of the better players in this field. Currently 19th on the leaderboard, I can't see him producing a poor round and falling down the leaderboard, particularly with so many other players facing Tour Card pressure. That might not be the case with Cantlay who has 'Special Temporary Membership' on the Web.com Tour, but he has underperformed since turning pro other one event on the Web.com Tour. Jhonattan Vegas to beat Greg Owen -101 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
Both players start the final round in the top-10, but they have contrasting histories from this position. Whereas Owen has been here ten times previously on the PGA Tour and averages 72.30 in rd4 from this position; Vegas has been here five times since the start of last season alone, averages 69.20 and has didn't finish outside the top-10 in any of those occasions. Jeff Overton to beat Billy Horschel -125 @ Paddy Power WON by 5
Horschel was a profitable go-against yesterday and now that his current 19th place position gives him a projected Money List ranking of 143rd (and so a return to Q-School), I can't see him bouncing back from yesterday's lost opportunity. Charles Howell to beat Bryce Molder -120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 3
Molder may be the defending champion, but Howell does tend to play well from this position - he is currently in 3rd place. He has started the final round in the top-3 on eight occasions since 2006, finishing 2nd six times, 3rd once and 8th once. Once of those runners-up finishes was in this year's Sony Open in Hawaii and it does suggest that he may not be a likely winner from this position, but he always seems to go close even though not winning. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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