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1-1; +0.00pts (system plays: 4-6-2) Round 1 play (2pts): Pat Perez to beat John Huh -105 @ Bet365 TIED
A small punt on Perez to win this matchup. He is in good form with five cuts made in a row, including four top-30 finishes, and did finish in the top-10 in his previous visit in 2010. Huh is much less consistent - five top-25 finishes, but also four missed cuts in his last nine starts - and he hasn't played this course previously. I'll take these odds with Perez as an underdog with little other value to be found. Round 2 play (4pts): John Huh to beat Ben Curtis +100 @ Bet365 [available generally] TIED
Tee-to-green, Huh was much better than Curtis yesterday, hitting his drives straighter and longer and hitting more greens in regulation, but he still finished the day one shot behind Curtis. Round two does appear to be the round to oppose Curtis, though - despite his purple patch of form in April/May, he has broken 70 in the second just once on the PGA Tour in 2012 (Huh has done so six times). [unofficial rd2 system plays: Byrd tb Pettersson -125 (L); O'Hair tb Singh +100 (W); Owen tb Summerhays -140 (L); Byrd tb Howell -133 (W); Byrd tb Haas B -120 (W)] Round 3 play (4pts): Jonathan Byrd to beat Webb Simpson +138 @ Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 5
Good odds to oppose the leader, particularly with the tie as void. Simpson is 0-for-3 when leading after rd1, 0-for-3 when leading after rd2, and just 1-for-3 when leading after rd3. Byrd is in 2nd place, just one shot behind the leader and even though Simpson won the U.S. Open three weeks ago, Byrd has been in the better form recent with four top-15 finishes in his last five starts. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Piercy tb Estes +125 (T); Na tb Pettersson -105 (L); Love tb Castro -118 (W); O'Hair tb Holmes -105 (L); Wi tb Duke -116 (L); Bradley tb Pettersson -113 (T); O'Hair tb Overton +126 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Charlie Wi to beat Martin Flores -110 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 2
Opposing Flores who, despite playing in his 21st event of a season that is just six months old, ranks outside the top-100 on the Money List and so faces a great deal of pressure to maintain his current 7th position and increase his chances of securing his Tour Card for 2012. Given that he started yesterday in 2nd place and really struggled until three late birdies, it appears unlikely that he will play any better under today's pressure. This will only be the 2nd time that he has started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10. The last time - the 2010 Bob Hope Classic - he failed to break par in the final round and finished 18th. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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