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1-1; -0.32pts (system plays: 3-3-1) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Greg Chalmers to beat Blake Adams -125 @ Stan James WON by 8
Opposing Adams who lies in 8th place despite hitting less than half of the greens in regulation yesterday. This should be a difficult position for Adams to hold given that he has had just one top-40 finish in ten starts this year and he was in the same position last year - 9th after the 1st round - but then failed to break par in any subsequent round. In fact, in the eight times that he has started the 2nd round in the top-10 on the PGA Tour, he has broken 70 in that round just once and managed to stay in the top-10 just once. Chalmers has been playing well and under the radar: he has finished in the top-30 in three of his last four starts and that includes 20th in the WGC-Cadillac Championship. Adams was playing in Puerto Rico that week and that alone shows which player has the better game. [unofficial rd2 system play: Mallinger tb Gillis -139 (L)] Round 3 play (4pts): Fredrik Jacobson to beat Carl Pettersson -108 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 8
A matchup between the two players who head the greens in regulation stats this week. However, Jacobson is the more consistent player and so more likely to remain in the top-10 than his Swedish compatriot: in the last eleven months, Jacobson has made the cut in 20 of 21 events; Pettersson has missed the cut in two of the last three weeks alone. Their record at Harbour Town is similarly so: Jacobson has finished 12th, 37th, 22nd and 21st in the last four years; Pettersson has missed the cut in two of the last four years. So Pettersson is clearly a player who can shoot low, but given that he is in the final group, he looks more likely to shoot a high score than a low one. Jacobson is far more dependable. [unofficial rd3 system play: English tb Garrigus -105 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Kevin Na to beat Boo Weekley -120 @ Paddy Power TIED
Opposing Weekley even though he was a back-to-back winner of this event in 2007-08, but injuries and a loss of confidence have made him not the player that he was. He can be streaky - he finished 3rd in the Puerto Rico Open - but he has had just one other top-50 finish all year. That puts him under a lot more pressure than other players more confident of retaining their Tour Card for 2013; he will not want to go back to Q-School as he did last year. That makes it easier for Na, already 23rd in the Money List, after finishing 12th in The Masters last week and having had three other top-5 finishes this year (in much more prestigious events than the Puerto Rico Open). Weekley may have the double-win here to keep him playing above his normal level, but Na was a top-10 finisher last year (and was 4th in 2007), so to secure his fourth top-5 finish of the season is a strong possibility. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Johnson tb Weekley -120 (W); Campbell tb Bradley -125 (W); Na tb Davis -120 (T); Johnson tb Pettersson -140 (L); Mayfair tb Gainey +105 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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