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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Honda Classic
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3-0; +8.20pts (system plays: 4-7-0)

Round 1 play (2pts):

Carl Pettersson to beat Camilo Villegas +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Villegas, a former University of Florida student, is a former winner here in 2010 and lost out in a playoff in 2007, but that misses the fact that he has missed the cut twice in the last three years, shooting 78-79 last year. He started the season in great form, shooting 63 and holding the first round lead in his opening event of the year (Humana Challenge), but he fell down the leaderboard in each subsequent round and has finished further down the leaderboard in each subsequent event, missing the cut last time out. His last four rounds have been 75-76-74-74. Pettersson may not have won here, but he has missed the cut only once in the last nine years and he has made the cut in every start this year. He looks the far more dependable player to break par today.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Westwood tb Woods +130 (W); Jacobson tb Rose +110 (L); Crane tb Rose +125 (L)]

 

Round 2 play (4pts):

Carl Pettersson to beat Sang-Moon Bae +100 @ Boyle Sports  WON by 1
Impressed by Pettersson yesterday. He played in the more difficult conditions - average score for the afternoon players was 0.92 shots higher than for the morning players - and his short game was in great condition. He has been in good form this year and on this course where he is playing for his tenth consecutive year. Already in the top-10, I expect him to cement his position there with today's round. For Bae, there is a strong chance of a let-down after his unexpected performance last week when he reached the quarter-finals. He made a lot more bogeys than Pettersson yesterday and is back in 40th place; he may already have one eye on next week's WGC event.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Fowler tb Kim K -138 (W); Pettersson tb O'Hair -128 (L); Furyk tb Yang -117 (L); Pettersson tb McDowell -120 (L); Pettersson tb Garrigus -167 (L); Bradley K tb Stanley -161 (W)]

 

No round 3 plays.

 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Mark Wilson +110 @ Boyle Sports  WON by 4
Opposing Wilson who played six rounds of golf last week in the WGC Matchplay event in Arizona and needed to rest so much that he did not appear at the course until Wednesday; his caddie drove from the West Coast and did not arrive until a day later. Wilson has clearly struggled to repeat last week's form - he ranks almost last in greens in regulation this week - and while he did shoot 68 yesterday, this could be a long round for him. Jacobson is the fresher player and has a very good record in this event: 5th, 6th and 29th in the last three years.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Rose tb McDowell +100 (L); McDowell tb Chalmers -120 (W)]

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).