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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Houston Open
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0-2; -6.76pts (system plays: 4-2-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Robert Allenby to beat Louis Oosthuizen +100 @ WSEX [available generally]  LOST by 5
A marginal play at plus-odds, though unsure of the value at lower odds. Allenby is a former winner of this event back in 2000 at The Woodlands, but his record in this event is generally very good with no missed cuts in seven previous visits and a record of having finished 34th (2008) and 6th (last year) in his two previous visits to the Redstone course. Oosthuizen finished behind Allenby in both 2008 and 2011 (his only previous starts in Texas) and even though he played well last week, he had struggled in his two previous events, withdrawing with illness from the Honda Classic and finishing 60th of 74 in the Cadillac Championship. At plus-odds and ties void, there is just enough value to warrant a play here.

 

Round 4 play (4pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat James Driscoll -119 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 3
Opposing Driscoll who dropped from 2nd to 5th in the third round, but is still in a very unusual position: in the last six seasons: he has started the final round in the top-10 just once on the PGA Tour. Palmer has been in that position six times in the last two years along, always remaining in the top-10, winning once and reaching a playoff one other time. With Palmer dominating the h2h stats 9-4-0 since the start of last year, I can only see a continuation of yesterday's movement on the leaderboard with Palmer moving upwards while Driscoll slips further back.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Palmer tb Huh -110 (L); Els tb Wagner -111 (W); Jobe tb Taylor -125 (L); Holmes tb Huh -113 (W); Perez tb Taylor +105 (W); Mahan tb Oosthuizen -109 (W); Weekley tb Driscoll -125 (T)]

NOTES

There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).