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2-1; +4.00pts (system plays: 2-1-1) Round 1 play (2pts): John Senden to beat Carl Pettersson +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Pettersson finished 2nd last week, but Senden's form is just as good: he finished 23rd last week to make it ten starts in a row in which he has finished in the top-30 ... in fact, he has finished in the top-30 in 14 of his last 15 starts. That consistency makes him ideal for match bets, but this is also a play based on event form - so crucial in a pro-am format. Whereas Pettersson has missed the cut three times from six attempts with a best finish of 35th (2006), Senden has missed the cut just once in ten attempts and finished in the top-10 three times. [unofficial rd1 system play: Sabbatini tb Johnson Z +100 (T)] Round 2 play (4pts): Mark Wilson to beat Seung-Yul Noh -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 8
A strange position to find Noh after the conclusion of the first round: in 7th place. With the exception of the 2010 PGA Championship when he was 2nd after the opening round, but fell further back with every round thereafter, Noh had never been in the top-10 of a PGA Tour event until this year ... and then last week he opened with a 66 to be 5th after the first round of the Sony Open in Hawaii. On that occasion, every subsequent round was over-par as he finished 66th and, despite his 3rd place finish at the Q-School in December, I'd expect a similar pattern to occur this week. Wilson is more than capable of maintining his current 14th place position as these two move onto the harder courses in the rotation. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Toms tb Trahan -175 (W); Na tb Steele -125 (W); Laird tb Johnson Z -130 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Harrison Frazar to beat Mark Wilson +120 @ Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 9
At eight-under-par after 11 holes, it looked as though 59 might be a possibility for Wilson yesterday. In the end, he was just 2-under-par for the last seven holes and this play is based on the likelihood of a reaction to yesterday's round. Frazar may be done in 39th place, but he's only eight shots off the pace with 36 holes to play, and in the form that he is in - 5th and 2nd in the last two weeks - he certainly won't view this title as being out of his reach. He has already three top-10 finishes in this event, whereas Wilson's best previous finish in this event is 33rd. No round 4 plays. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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