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3-0; +8.20pts (system plays: 9-4-2) Round 1 play (2pts): Chez Reavie to beat Daniel Summerhays +110 @ 5Dimes WON by 6
Two players in good form - Reavie has finished 15th and 11th in his last two starts and Summerhays has finished 17th and 5th in his last two starts - so I am unsure as to why Reavie is such a large underdog. It is not that the course suits Summerhays more as he missed the cut on his debut here last year, whereas Reavie shot 62 in the 2nd round last year en route to finishing 5th. This week is all about attacking golf so the 'proximity to hole' stat has been suggested as key this week (@NicsPicks) and that appears to be borne out by Stricker being #1 in that category. In terms of this matchup, Reavie is ranked 17th on the PGA Tour in this category (18th last year), Summerhays 119th (158th last year). Again, it appears strange that Summerhays is so strongly fancied by 5Dimes (or their customers who may have moved this line). [unofficial rd1 system play: De Jonge tb Pettersson +100 (T)] Round 2 play (2pts): Steve Stricker to beat Kyle Stanley -150 @ SkyBet, Stan James and Boyle Sports [available generally] WON by 2
Wasn't going to go anywhere near Stricker yesterday with all the hype about his attempt for the four-pear and that may have led to his poor performance on the first nine yesterday - he was level-par. But he bounced back to be 6-under-par for the back nine to finish the day in 3rd place and a lot of the attention has been taken off him by Troy Matteson's 61. I'd expect a continuation of his back-nine form today rather than his front-nine form. As for Stanley, he did finish 22nd last week, but he had been in very poor form with eight cuts missed in his previous 12 starts and a best finish of 49th. It suggests that it is unlikely that he will significantly improve upon his current 39th place position. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Moore tb Stanley -120 (T); Watney tb Noh -143 (W); Watney tb Choi -120 (W); Clark tb Vegas -134 (W); Sabbatini tb Points -125 (W)] Round 3 play (4pts): Troy Matteson to beat Jeff Maggert +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 6
A host of angles in this matchup. Maggert shot the low round of the day yesterday by two shots, so is a clear go-against today; in his last 17 starts, he has missed the cut 10 times and failed to finish in the top-25 so his confidence is clearly brittle; twice this season, Maggert has started the weekend in 2nd place (St Jude Classic last month and Greenbrier Classic last week), but on both occasions he has dropped back to finish 27th; and even though Matteson is leading the event, over the 11 times that he has started a round on the PGA Tour in the lead, he averaged less than 70 in that round. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Senden tb Crane -105 (W); Waldorf tb Gates -110 (L); Matteson tb Henry -120 (W); Matteson tb Barnes -110 (W); Harman tb Maggert -111 (W); Thatcher tb Streelman +110 (L); Barnes tb Christian -125 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Ricky Barnes to beat Jeff Maggert -102 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
Will oppose Maggert again as he repeated history yesterday. That makes it three times in six weeks that he has started the weekend in 2nd place and then struggled - and it was obvious when he double-bogeyed the 1st hole. On both previous occasions, he has dropped out of the top-25 by the end of the event, so this looks like another round in which history should repeat itself. Barnes also fell back yesterday, but I am still surprised that Pinnacle make him the underdog in this matchup. [unoffiical rd4 system plays: Senden tb Harman -163 (W); Moore tb Piercy -120 (L)] |
