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8-7; -1.58pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Harris English to beat Jonas Blixt -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 7
Both event debutants, but English has finished ahead of Blixt in four of their last five common events. The wide fairways at Summerlin should also point to the American having the better week, John Merrick to beat Brian Harman +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 1
With three top-20 finishes in his last four starts, Merrick is clearly the form player. With Harman making his event debut and Merrick having been a regular for the last five years, I'm surprised that it is Harman who is priced as the favourite. Chad Campbell to beat Fredrik Jacobson +115 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
The UNLV graduate hasn't missed a cut here since 2002 and that includes top-3 finishes in 2008 and 2009, With a 4th place finish in his penultimate event, Campbell looks more likely to play well this week so there is value in these odds. Round 2 plays (2pts): Vijay Singh to beat Jonas Blixt -110 @ Paddy Power LOST by 2
Expecting a good round from Vijay - he has missed just once cut (U.S. Open) since the Players Championship and shot 66 to finish the first round in 12th place despite playing in the more difficult afternoon conditions. So did Blixt, which makes his 64 all the more impressive, but in the three previous times that he has finished the first round in the top-10 on the PGA, he failed to break 70 and even stay in the top-20 in the next round. Jimmy Walker to beat David Hearn -116 @ Bet365 WON by 4
Walker is another who has been in good form, making 13 of his last 15 cuts. That form has seen him finished ahead of Hearn 13 times this year alone and he is already ahead of him after the first round this week. Vijay Singh to beat Sean O'Hair -140 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Carib and WSEX] WON by 4
O'Hair record in his last five starts is two missed cut, one withdrawal and two finishes outside the top-50. That is not the form to match Vijay who is already ahad of him after 18 holes. Vijay Singh to beat Jason Day -111 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Day struggled yesterday and finished the day outside the top-50. This will be the eighth time that he has finished the first round outside the top-50 this year; he has yet to break 70 from this position in 2012. Kevin Stadler to beat David Hearn -120 @ BetVictor WON by 2
Stadler dominates this matchup - 12-4-1 in their last 17 common events - and is already ahead after the first round. With three top-11 finishes in his last five starts, Stadler deserves to be the favourite in this matchup. Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated): John Daly to beat Brendon De Jonge +150 @ SkyBet [4pts] LOST by 20!
Great to see JD in contention on the PGA Tour, but it is not that rare - he finished 5th in the Reno-Tahoe Open in August, 18th in the PGA Championship and was 6th in his last outing in Europe. This will be the third time that De Jonge has led a PGA Tour event after 36 holes - he failed to break par in the 3rd round in either of the two previous occasions. John Huh to beat Jonas Blixt -110 @ William Hill [also available @ Paddy Power] LOST by 6
Blixt has never led a PGA Tour event at the end of the round previously. He has done six times on the Web.com Tour, but never converted any of those leading positions into victory, so I can't see it happening this week. Brendon De Jonge to beat Jonas Blixt -111 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
De Jonge may not have broken par from this position previously, but his experience should prepare him better for today's round. Round 4 plays (2pts): Vijay Singh to beat Brendon De Jonge -110 @ Paddy Power LOST by 7
I still think that De Jonge will buckle under the pressure at some stage. The one previous time that he held the lead heading into the final round of a PGA Tour event was this year's AT&T National - he shot 77 and finished 11th. Tim Herron to beat Jason Bohn -125 @ SkyBet LOST by 3
No great surprise to see Herron in 4th place, he has consistently played well here - finishes of 14th, 6th, 27th and 5th in the last five years. He has finished ahead of Bohn in each of their last four events, so a fifth looks likely this week. Jason Day to beat Russell Knox -125 @ BetVictor WON by 7
Knox is currently in 6th place - this will be the first time that he has started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10. He has done so twice in the top-20, but each time he finished the PGA Tour event outside the top-30. To be opposed when faced with such unfamiliar pressure. Josh Teater to beat Bill Lunde -134 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 6
By contrast, this will be the fourth time that Teater has started the final round of a PGA Tour event inside the top-10 - each time previously he has finished the day still in the top-10. The last time was in the Canadian Open in July - he shot 66 to finish 4th. Josh Teater to beat Jhonattan Vegas -111 @ Bet365 WON by 2
This is just the third cut that Vegas has made in the last four months and, unlike Teater who is in the top-10, he a lot further back in 29th place. I just don't see the form from the Venezuelan to be able to make a significant move up this leaderboard. |
