18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-0; +14.30pts  (system plays: 16-8-0) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Rory McIlroy +115 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Paddy Power]  WON by 4
With 11 top-5 finishes in his last 12 Tour events, there is little doubt over who really is the World #1, but this is The Masters and a return to the scene of McIlroy's famous collapse and, in the case of the 10th hole, a spectacular collapse last year. Yes, he did rebound well to win wire-to-wire in the U.S. Open, but this is The Masters where he has broken 70 in just two of ten rounds; Westwood has done so in four of his last eight. McIlroy has finished 20th, mc, 15th in his three starts; Westwood has 11th, 10th (after 54 holes), 2nd and 11th in the last four years. In terms of the Majors, Westwood has finished in the top-20 in eight of his last nine since the 2009 British Open, McIlroy in just five of ten over the same period. On an any normal course, McIlroy would deservingly be a very strong favourite in this matchup, but not in the first round at The Masters.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Day tb Schwartzel +105 (L); Toms tb Laird +110 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Angel Cabrera -110 @ SkyBet  WON by 5
Backing the ever-dependabale, conservative Furyk. He did exactly want he wanted to do yesterday and kept the ball in play and gave himself chances for birdies. If he had holed short birdie putts at the 8th and 13th, he would have been in 2nd place overnight. He didn't, but he is still in the top-10 and didn't drop a single shot all day - a feat that nobody else achieved. Given that his last two events have resulted in a playoff loss (Transitions Championship) and an 11th place finish (Arnold Palmer Invitational), there is enough evidence that he can continue yesterday's golf and shoot another sub-par round. While Cabrera is a former champion (2009) and finished the day a shot further back in 14th place, he was much more erratic with just eight pars and very few fairways found off the tee. But even though he scored well in the first round, he recent history suggests that he is unlikely to continue doing so: in December, he led the Open de Argentina after rd1, but then shot 80-74-72 to finish 36th; in March, he was 8th after rd1, but then shot 75-69-69 to finish 24th; last week, he led after the opening round of the Houston Open, but then shot 70-76-70 to finish 21st. In every other event in the intervening period, he has missed the cut. On yesterday's evidence, he can play well for one round, but he will struggle to replicate that scoring if he remains so poor from tee-to-green.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Haas tb Stanley -133 (W); Furyk tb Dufner -125 (L); Na tb Crane -105 (L); Haas tb Baddeley +100 (L); Byrd tb Sabbatini -120 (W); Stricker tb Watney -125 (L); Baddeley tb Kim -160 (W); Couples tb Ishikawa -110 (W); Woods tb Donald -110 (L); Garcia tb Choi -125 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Sergio Garcia +100 @ SkyBet  WON by 6
Both players are in 3rd place, just one shot off the lead, but I think Oosthuizen is the more likely to go on and win this event. In Garcia's own words yesterday: "I don't know if I'm ready to win. I'll see ... I wish I could tell you I'm ready to win, but I really don't know." That contrasts sharply with "it's great going into the weekend‑‑ even if by the end of today I'm three, four behind, it's a great opportunity and a great spot to be in" from Oosthuizen who is only one behind, not three or four. Maybe part of Oosthuizen's more positive approach in interviews is the fact that is already a Major winner (2010 Open Championship), whereas Garcia has still to live up to his early expectations and he is constantly reminded of it in Majors: "A decade ago, you were golf's next big thing. What have you learned about yourself since then that makes you ready to win this year?" was a question to him in interview yesterday, to which he gave the earlier uncertain reply. The other reason for the different mindsets is the fact that Garcia is playing with an infected fingernail which is not only painful, but bleeds when he plays golf. Given his failures to convert his many chances in Majors so far, he will do well to remain in the top-3, whereas Oosthuizen looks the much better player all week apart during the severe cold of the front nine yesterday.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Johnson tb Woodland -106 (W); Singh tb Lawrie -110 (L)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Bubba Watson to beat Louis Oosthuizen -115 @ Carib [available generally]  WON by 1
I never really saw Bubba as a Major Champion, but he has progressed his game to a new level this year. Not only does he rank 1st in driving distance on the PGA Tour, but also 1st in greens in regulation, which shows the ball control that he has been able to master this season, and his stats this week are no different. In his last ten starts, he has finished in the top-20 every time and whereas Oosthuizen has missed the cut in all of his three previous visits to Augusta National, Watson has made the weekend every time. Oosthuizen did take the lead on the front nine yesterday and then had sole posession after his birdie on the 12th, but he failed to make a birdie from that point onwards and dropped a shot at the last to finish 3rd and two shots back. By contrast, Watson birdied the two par-5 on the back nine to get him close to the lead and then birdied the last hole to finish the day in 4th place and three shots back. In terms of momentum and freezing in the lead, the edge is clearly with Watson. Two of his previous three wins on the PGA Tour have been from this position: 4th with 18 holes to play in the 2010 Travelers Championship; 3rd with 18 holes to play in the Farmers Insurance Open. I never saw Watson as a Major Champion, but he has impressed me so much, he may yet win it if he doesn't hit the front too early.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Furyk tb Byrd -135 (W); Mickelson tb Hanson -175 (W); Dufner tb O'Hair -125 (W); Furyk tb Simpson -110 (W); Poulter tb Harrington -110 (W); Jacobson tb Lawrie -111 (W); Snedeker tb Bae -110 (W); Mickelson tb Mahan -150 (W); Snedeker tb O'Hair -110 (W); Crane tb Couples -105 (L)]