|
2-1; +2.00pts (system plays: 5-3-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Billy Mayfair to beat Brett Wetterich -109 @ Unibet WON by 4
Opposing Wetterich who did win on the Nationwide Tour last year, but is not the player that he was (2006 Ryder Cup player) and hasn't been since his shoulder injury. In his last elevent events of 2011 he withdrew four times and missed the cut a further four times and he opened his 2012 campaign with a missed cut at Pebble Beach. He may make the cut this week from his current position (37th), but he still remains a player to oppose in matchups wherever possible. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Canizares tb Every -110 (L); Hearn tb Teater -135 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Will Claxton to beat Greg Owen +120 @ SkyBet [available generally] WON by 2
Willing to oppose Owen these odds in this matchup of the leaders. He has been in this position twice previously on the PGATour: in the 2009 Frys.com Open, he then shot 73-68 over the weekend to fall from 1st to 19th and then 29th; in the 2010 Verizon Heritage, he then shot 73-76 over the weekend to fall from 1st to 24th and then 53rd. He has had similar experiences when holding the post-cut lead on the Nationwide Tour, so I don't see him shooting another low score and winning from this position. Claxton may never have been in this position previously, but this is a play against Owen and a hope that Claxton will not buckle under the pressure. Round 4 play (4pts): Kevin Stadler to beat Matt Every -110 @ Paddy Power LOST by 4
Stadler had been one of my 'to back' guys this week and will do so at a good price/matchup. In his own words: "I look forward to coming here every year. I tend to play well here. I think I'm just in a good place mentally down here. I come and have fun and just enjoy my time here ... I've played pretty well. The course just suits me. I typically drive it pretty good, and you can get away with small misses here, which tends to be kind of how I do it." His record shows that he does play well here: he has made the cut in all five previous visits with top-20 visits in three of them and when he didn't finish in the top-20, he had still been in contention that week (9th early on in 2008; 2nd at the cut last year). He currently lies 13th, and while a quadruple-bogey eight at his ninth hole yesterday might have derailed his round, he bounced back with a couple of birdes and is still in contention at seven shots off the lead. Every would have started the day in the top-3, but took a double-bogey six on the last hole which, together with his poor record in this position - he has never broken par when starting the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 - should make today a difficult round for him. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Allenby tb Turnesa -163 (W); Howell tb Baird -110 (L); Allenby tb Baird -120 (W); Ames tb Petrovic -133 (L); Stroud tb Summerhays -138 (W); Allenby tb Stroud -130 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
