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12-5; +19.40pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Zach Johnson +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet and William Hill] LOST by 1
With top-15 finishes in his last three starts and finishing ahead of Johnson in six of their last seven common events, Furyk is justifiably confident of a good performance on this course - he finished 11th last year. Jerry Kelly to beat Brendan Steele +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Kelly has produced two decent performances in the McGladrey Classic so far - in particular, he was 8th after 36 holes last year - so this does represent a good chance for him to get back inside the top-125 on the Money List. Steele is making his course debut, but on a course on which putting has been crucial in the last two years, this should not be a course that suits his particular game. Mark Wilson to beat Scott Stallings +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ BetVictor] TIED
Stallings is another who is making his course debut, but languishes near the bottom of the PGA Tour's putting stats categories. Charles Howell to beat Gary Woodland +100 @ Bet365 WON by 4
And another in Woodland. His power should not be particularly decisive on a course with only two par-5s, but Howell is coming off a good performance last week and is the joint course record holder with Trevor Immelman (62). Justin Leonard to beat Brandan Steele +105 @ WSEX [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and The Greek] LOST by 1
Opposing Steele with another player who course experience. Leonard's putting may not be as strong as in his younger days, but he still dominates this matchup, finishing ahead of Steele in eight of their last eleven common events. Round 2 plays (4pts): Jason Day to beat Bud Cauley -125 @ Pinnacle and BetVictor [available generally] WON by 3
Opposing Cauley who holds the joint lead with Marco Dawson after round 1, but has never previously held the lead after any round on either the PGA or the Web.com Tour. In his own words, "it has been a long season, and although I've played a lot this year, I haven't won". He has had some good events, but it has been two months since he last recorded a top-50 finish. I expect him to find it much tougher today under the new pressure of leading an event. No such pressure for Day who is coming off a 4th place finish nad has shown good form all season. Vijay Singh to beat Bud Cauley +105 @ Boyle Sports WON by 2
Vijay is another in good form and coming off a 4th place finish last time out. He continued that form yesterday with 66 and I expect him to ddo so again today. Charles Howell to beat Bud Cauley +100@ Paddy Power WON by 2
Another in good form who also shot 66 yesterday. He has the added benefit of good course history - 6th in 2010 - so is a surprising underdog in this matchup with Cauley. Henrik Stenson to beat Bud Cauley +110 @ SkyBet WON by 2
Another in good form - finishes of 5th and 6th in his last three starts on the European Tour - and he brought over that form to Georgia yesterday with a 67. Good odds on him to beat a leader under pressure. Charles Howell to beat David Toms -135 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
And one play that does not involve Bud Cauley. Toms hasn't played since August, when he missed the cut in the first two events of the Playoffs and didn't progress to The Barclays. He did score well yesterday and ended the day in 6th place, but he was poor from tee-to-green, which is no surprise as he admitted in his post-round interview that "There's a lot of distractions away from golf. Even though I've been home for seven weeks, I had a few outings and I've been playing a little casual golf. So I wouldn't say I was totally prepared to come here and play well, but at least I've touched the clubs a little bit lately." This is his final event of the year and he will go back to building his golf academy - I'd be suprised if he played sd well today ... and so would Toms, by the sound of it! Round 3 plays (4pts unless stated): Bud Cauley to beat Michael Thompson +100 @ Bet365 WON by 1
Cauley dropped back as expected, but is still only two shots off the lead and I'd expect him to play better from that position. Thompson does have a 3rd place finish on this course, but Cauley has finished ahead of him in six of their last seven common events. Brian Gay to beat Davis Love +100 @ Paddy Power LOST by 3
Love has been in good positions at the weekend in both of his events since the Ryder Cup, but has fallen back over the last two rounds each time. Once again, he has started well - 2nd at the cut - but I expect him to drop back. He has been in the top-5 after 36 holes just once in the last 3 years and he shot 74-74 on that occasion, so I don't see anything that points to a good round from him. Jim Furyk to beat Davis Love -141 @ Pinnacle [available generally] [2pts] TIED
So opposing him with Furyk looks an obvious choice. He has shown vulnerability when high up the leaderboard in the final round recently, but he looks far more likely to retain his current 2nd place position than DL3. Charles Howell to beat David Toms -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] [2pts] WON by 3
Going for a repeat of yesterday's play which lost, like all the losing plays this week, by a single shot. The reasons are the same as yesterday, so I will gladly take the much better odds. Charles Howell to beat Michael Thompson +110 @ SkyBet [2pts] WON by 2
Will back Howell in this matchup as well. The course record holder has been in much better form, so these odds are a bonus. Round 4 plays (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Bud Cauley -110 @ SkyBet WON by 3
Love's birdie putt on the 18th hole last night means that Furyk is the joint leader heading into the final round rather than having to defend a lead. That may not be a bad thing - the only time that he has never finished 1st or 2nd when a joint leader after 54 holes was the U.S. Open this year (he finished 4th), so I'm now expecting a good round from him. That should be enough to beat Cauley over whom he has a 10-3-2 h2h record in 2012, incuding 6-2-0 in the final round. Jim Furyk to beat Vijay Singh -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Furyk has been even more dominant on Sundays against Singh - 9-2-1 in 2012 alone, while the Fijian ranks 142nd on the PGA Tour in Final Round Scoring Average. Charles Howell to beat Bud Cauley +110 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Carib and WSEX] WON by 4
Continuing to back Howell, the joint course record-holder. These are good odds to back him against Cauley who played better yesterday, but still finished the day lower down the leaderboard than when he started. Brendon De Jonge to beat Vijay Singh +100 @ Bet365 WON by 6
De Jonge has been in good form recently - 2nd in his last outing and has a top-15 finish here - so I'll back him to beat a player with such a poor final round scoring average. Ben Crane to beat Bud Cauley -120 @ Paddy Power TIED
Crane got himself into contention yesterday with a course-record-equalling 62. That would be an angle on which to oppose him normally, but as the defending champion I think he is more likely to continue his form today now that he is only four shots off the lead rather than 'bounce back'. |
