18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-1; +6.20pts  (system plays: 9-6-2)

Round 1 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Phil Mickelson +110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Paddy Power, William Hill and Boyle Sports]  WON by 6
Good odds to back the defending champion for the first round. Mickelson does have a good record around here - top-20 in his last six visits - but he admitted in his last event that he was struggling with his game ("I'm not where I want to be"), but got hot with his putter in the final round. With him spending a whole week at Olympic getting ready for the U.S. Open in two weeks, it is clear where his focus is right now. As defending champion, Stricker's focus is certainly on this event and on improving the one area that has let him down recently - his putting.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Johnson tb Oosthuizen +122 (W); Watney tb Oosthuizen +140 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Spencer Levin to beat Scott Stallings -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Opposing the 1st round leader. He has won on the PGA Tour previously - 2011 Greenbrier Classic - but that was from off the pace: his positions at the end of each day were 42nd, 4th, 2nd and then 1st. On the one occasion that he has held the lead after the 1st round - 2011 Children's Miracle Network Classic - he then failed to break 70 throughout the rest of week and finished 28th. He has never led on Tour after either the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Levin had a really hot day on the greens yesterday, so I'm hoping that the rest of his game will hold up today. However, against a player who is inexperienced in leading PGA Tour events and has missed six cuts in a row, he shouldn't need to shoot a particularly low score to win this matchup.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Woods tb McIlroy -120 (W); Wi tb Hearn -120 (T); Furyk tb Simpson -130 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Jonathan Byrd to beat Ryan Moore +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 1
Byrd is a good player when in contention: in the last ten occasions that he has started the weekend in the top-10, he has broke 70 in the 3rd round on eight occasions, averaging 68.6 on the Saturday. With wind also set to be a factor this afternoon, this should also favour Byrd. His last two events have been affected by 15mph+ winds throughout most of the week and he has finished 12th and 10th, ahead of Moore both times. So, with finishes of 3rd and 7th on this course in the last three years, there is little to suggest that he won't still be in the top-10 at the end of today's round.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Van Pelt tb Scott +100 (W); Stricker tb Scott -111 (W)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Dustin Johnson -125 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 2
This has been Johnson's first event in three months as he recovered from a back injury involving a jet ski. He has done well to be 15th after three rounds as his ball-striking has been poor - his driving distance stats (and rank) are down on his season average and he 68th (of 71) in dirving accuracy and 60th in greens in regulation. I can't see him maintaining his current position being so dependent on his putting this week for his scoring. By contrast, Furyk has been as consistent as ever - he ranks 3rd on Tour in scoring average (and 7th in final round scoing average) and as a former winner, plus 2nd and 10th in the last three years, the tough Muirfield Village course clearly sets up well for him. It would be a surprise to see him fall out of the top-15 from this position.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Moore tb Singh -138 (L); Furyk tb Van Pelt -120 (L); Hearn tb Every +110 (L); Fowler tb Byrd -125 (L); Immelman tb Wagner -105 (T); Stadler tb Every -110 (L); Hearn tb Reifers -108 (W); Donald tb Davis -154 (W); Donald tb Woods +110 (L); Donald tb Scott -120 (W)]