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0-2; -4.68pts (system plays: 4-1-4) Round 1 play (2pts): Aaron Baddeley to beat Adam Scott +115 @ 5Dimes TIED
This looks a very good price given their recent activities. Whereas Baddeley comes into this event off a 4th place finish at Pebble Beach (and no cuts missed in his four starts this year), Scott hasn't played in a Tour event since November. Baddeley is the defending champion and has never missed the cut in nine previolus visits to Riviera; Scott has played just once in the last three years and he missed the cut that time. Scott can claim to be a former winner (2005), but that is only an unofficial win as the event was reduced to 36 holes over five days. Round 2 play (2pts): Luke Donald to beat Adam Scott -125 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 1
Disappointed not to get the win with Baddeley yesterday; Scott was very poor (he ranked 89th in driving distance, 89th in dirving accuracy and 111th in greens in regulation on the day). Donald was upbeat about his game and his ball-control in his post-round interview and to finish the round in 14th place in the cold, windy morning conditions was a good achievement (the afternoon starters averaged 0.86 shots better than the morning starters). He has finishes of 3rd, 6th and 2nd in the last four years here. Why shouldn't the runaway World #1 be a much stronger favourite in this matchup? Round 3 play (2pts): Zach Johnson to beat Keegan Bradley -109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ William Hill, 5Dimes, The Greek and Paddy Power] LOST by 5
Johnson has finished ahead of Bradley in 11 of 15 common events since last year and given that he is playing far better from tee-to-green this week, he should improve on that record this week. Their respective course histories also points to the former Masters Champion being more suited to the Riviera course. [unofficial rd3 system play: Wi tb Cauley +100 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Phil Mickelson to beat Dustin Johnson -125 @ Paddy Power TIED
Mickelson has a very impressive record when leading from the front in the final round. Over the past eight years, he has held the lead with one round to play on 21 occasions ... on just four occasions has he ended the round not in the lead, going to win 15 times and losing in a playoff twice. One of those playoff loses was in this event (2007), but that only shows that his current week of leading this event at the end of every round is not unusual at Riviera: in 2007, he led after 36, 54 and 72 holes (finished 2nd via playoff loss), in 2008, he led after 36, 54 and 72 holes (winning by two shots), and in 2009, he led after 18, 54 and 72 holes (winning by a shot). History suggests that he will play well today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Leishman tb Lyle -119 (L); Mickelson tb Baddeley -138 (W); Van Pelt tb Moore +100 (W); Van Pelt tb Lyle -182 (T); Van Pelt tb Furyk -120 (T); Baddeley tb Molder -120 (W); Mickelson tb Bradley K -135 (T); Mahan tb Johnson Z -138 (T)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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