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1-2; -4.40pts (system plays: 13-10-3) Round 1 play (4pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Phil Mickelson +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 1
Definitely value at plus-odds to oppose Mickelson with a player like Mahan. Mickelson's last six starts read: wd, 65th (U.S. Open), mc, 16th, mc (British Open) and 43rd - he is simply not playing well enough to compete this week and one of the most surprising stats is that he hasn't broken 70 in the opening round since March. Over the whole of this season, he averages 71.89 in the first round - that is over one and a quarter shots more than Mahan, who will be a good shout to earn his fourth top-20 finish in this event in the last six years. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Lynn tb Bae +120 (L); Garcia tb Els +100 (L); Kaymer tb Colsaerts +100 (L)] Round 2 play (4pts): Geoff Ogilvy to beat Carl Pettersson -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Two angles for this. The first is that Pettersson is the 1st round leader in a Major Championship, having never previously won a Major. He has shown that he can cope with the pressure of leading - in two of the three occasions that he has been 1st round leader since 2011, he has finished every round in the top-5, so he has been consistent. The other occasion, though (2011 Northern Trust Open), he then shot 78-70-71 to finish 55th. He has coped with leading in the past (the last two occasions that he has led after rd1, he has won on to win the event), but if he doesn't he could have a big score today. The other angle is Geoff Ogilvy's confidence in his game. He has been talking widely about how well he is playing (after struggling for much of the season) and that resulted in a top-10 finish in the British Open, a 24th place finish last week on a course on which he has never had a top-20 finish (eight attempts) and his best opening score in a Major yesterday. He is a Major Champion and I'd expect him to still be in contention after today's round. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Woods tb McIlroy -125 (W); Woods tb Bradley -138 (W); Molinari tb Stanley -180 (W); Woods tb Oosthuizen -138 (W); Scott tb Schwartzel -120 (W); De Jonge tb Fernandez-Castano -120 (T); Scott tb Hansen -135 (T); Singh V tb Yang -130 (W)] Round 3 play (4pts): Retief Goosen to beat Paul Lawrie -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
I don't see how Lawrie can be the favourite in this matchup. The Scot is not a player who travels well to the U.S. - he missed the U.S. Open this year, citing his poor record in the event as the reason and the last time that he earned a top-20 in the U.S. was in the 2003 Masters. In his three strokplay events in the U.S. this year, he has broken par just once in each of those three events; he has yet to match par this week. Ignoring events in Europe (and the Middle East), Goosen has a 19-3-1 h2h record against the Scot in their last 23 common strokeplay events. It would be a different matter if this was an event in Europe, but otherwise Goosen should be the clear favourite in this matchup. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Toms tb Noh -105 (W); Perez tb Immelman -105 (L); Senden tb Ogilvy +100 (L); Perez tb Daly -115 (W); Johnson Z tb Bradley -108 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Tiger Woods to beat Padraig Harrington -163 @ Stan James TIED
Backing Tiger to continue the momentum that he found on the back-nine this morning to get himself back into this tournament. The last four times that Tiger has started the final round in the top-10, he has finished the final round in a higher position every time; the last four times that Harrington has started the final round in the top-10, he has finished the final round in a lower position every time. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Stricker tb McDowell -118 (T); Woods tb McDowell -138 (L); Woods tb Scott -138 (W); Pettersson tb Immelman -129 (W); Van Pelt tb Harrington +100 (L); Poulter tb Harrington +114 (W); Baddeley tb Hanson -120 (L); Baddeley tb Chalmers -124 (L); Lynn tb Donaldson +103 (W); Bradley tb Ogilvy -124 (W)] |
