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3-0; +6.76pts (system plays: 3-3-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Ben Curtis to beat Henrik Stenson +138 @ Boyle Sports WON by 3
Surprisingly good odds on Curtis to beat Stenson, who has struggled in recent years with injury and a remodelled game. It means that he can have occasional rounds playing like a former Players Championship winner, but he does struggle to maintain any real form. Curtis has finished ahead of him in each of their three common events this year and he also has a top-15 finish when he last played here (2008). That should not be a surprise as this is a course on which greens in regulation is a very important stat: last year there was a playoff between Troy Matteson who ranked 1st in greens in regulation that week and Michael Bradley who ranked 2nd in that stat; of the top-5 on the leaderboard, every one ranked inside the top-10 for greens in regulation. This is an area in which Curtis fares better than Stenson: he has hit 74% of greens in regulation this year; Stenson only 66%. That should point to the course being more suited to the American. Round 2 play (4pts): Jeff Overton to beat Ben Curtis -130 @ 5Dimes TIED
Curtis led the field in greens in regulation and won his matchup against Stenson, but now that he is 3rd, I will oppose him in the second round with a player one shot back. It is two years since he last finished the first round in the top-10 of any event, and he only did that once in 2010 (he finished the event outside the top-10). By contrast, this is the 11th time that Overton has finished the first round in the top-10 over the same period and in all but two occasions he has gone on to finish the event in the top-10. With Overton's round all the more impressive as he found water and took a double-bogey early in his round, I'll back him as the more likely player to stay in the top-10. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Taylor tb Ishikawa -110 (L); Stadler tb Cabrera -135 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Roland Thatcher to beat J.J. Killeen +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 1 Round 4 play (2pts): Jeff Overton to beat Vaughn Taylor -145 @ 5Dimes WON by 5 [unofficial rd4 system plays: De Jonge tb DeLaet -130 (L); Stenson tb Jones M -130 (T); Ishikawa tb Brown -120 (W); McNeill tb Ishikawa -120 (L); Ishikawa tb DeLaet -110 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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