|
0-2; -7.60pts (system plays: 6-2-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Pat Perez to beat Chris Kirk -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 6
A 11-1-1 h2h record in favour of Perez for the first round this year is enough reason to back PP in this matchup. That he finished 2nd last year (and 15th in his previous appearance at Montreux) and Kirk is making his course debut only adds to the value in this play. [unofficial rd1 system play: Teater tb Kirk +110 (W)] No round 2 plays. Round 3 play (2pts): John Mallinger to beat Andres Romero -110 @ Stan James TIED
The stableford format is ideal for the attacking-style of Romero, but this is still an unusual position for Romero after 36 holes: discounting events on the Tour de Las Americas, he has just one prior top-5 position in 2012 and just one in 2011. Mallinger lies 3rd, but in terms of stroke-play he has the joint lowest score after 36 holes (alongside Alexandre Rocha) so is clearly playing better than Romero and not just scoring better. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Mallinger tb Haas -116 (W); Brown B tb Hwang -138 (L); Bettencourt tb Atwal -110 (W)] Round 4 play (4pts): J.J. Henry to beat Alexandre Rocha -138 @ Stan James [available generally] LOST by 2
This is a one-sided matchup: over the last six months, Henry holds a 12-0-0 h2h record against Rocha. He may be leading, but in the one occasion that he previously held the lead with one round to play (2006 Buick Championship), he shot 68 and finished the day further ahead of the field than when he started it. Admittedly, that was six years ago, but I don't see Henry shooting a really bad score. That cannot be said of Rocha who has missed 14 of 18 cuts this year (one of those cuts made was on the Web.com Tour) and has a best finish of 49th this season. It has been four years since he started the final round of a Tour event in the top-5 and that was on the European Challenge Tour - if he stays in the top-5, it will be a very impressive performance. [unoffical rd4 system plays: Teater tb Merrick -111 (W); Holmes tb Barnes -105 (W); Holmes tb Kirk -111 (W); Lunde tb Romero -125 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
