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2-0; +8.00pts (system plays: 10-3-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Fredrik Jacobson to beat Bryce Molder -106 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
The Swede has a good record at Southwind - he has played here in each of the last nine years, missed the cut just once and has had three top-6 finishes. He comes into the event fresh after taking a three-week break following his missed cut at the Players Championship, but that second round 79 was the exception for him - he hadn't missed a cut for seven months until Sawgrass. By contrast, Molder has missed three of his last five cuts and after shooting 75-83 to miss the cut by 11 shots at Muirfield Village, he stayed around to play in the U.S. Open qualifier in Columbus, but shot 75-75 to miss out on a place by nine shots. In poor form, he looks unlikely to repeat the form of 2009 when he finished 2nd and more likely to repeat his form of his other four visits to Southwind when he missed the cut every time. [unofficial rd1 system plays: O'Hair tb Stenson +100 (W); Jacobson tb Laird +100 (W); Allenby tb Stenson +105 (W); Howell tb Palmer +100 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Chad Campbell to beat Hank Kuehne -177 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 6
A much better price than I expected for this matchup. Kuehne is making his return to the Tour on a Major Medical Extension after a five-year injury absence, but he has really struggled, missing six cuts of eight and breaking 70 just once this year. Yesterday he shot 76 to finish the day 137th and with no chance of making the cut. Campbell shot eight shots better yesterday to finish the day sixth and is in generally good form, leading the Heritage early on and 2nd at the cut in the Byron Nelson Championship. I don't expect that he will need to break par to win this matchup and I don't expect to see many more matchups involving Hank Kuehne. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Stadler tb Maggert -110 (W); McIlroy tb Harrington -150 (W); Overton tb Harrington +100 (L); Holmes tb Lunde -132 (W)] Round 3 play (4pts): Davis Love to beat Seung-Yul Noh +100 @ Paddy Power and William Hill [available generally] WON by 4
With just three weeks off in the whole season (and that includes a trip to the UAE to play in the Dubai Desert Classic), no-one else has played as many events as Noh this season. But as is always the case, it is those players struggling to retain their Tour Card who play this many events (he ranks 90th on the Money List). Currently 8th in this event, alongside Love, this represents a good opportunity for the Korean to earn enough money so he can have an easier last five months of the season, but it also means that there is a lot of pressure on him today. This is only the third time that he has started the weekend in the top-10 on the PGA Tour and the previous two occasions he failed to break par on the Saturday each time and fell to 16th and 26th respectively. That has also been the case in the sole occasion that he started the final round in the top-10 on the PGA Tour and in the four occasions that he has finished the 1st round in the top-10 this year, he has failed to break 70 in any of the following rounds. Love played well to finish 16th in the Memorial Tournamant last week and while he may have initially seen this as merely a warm-up for next week's U.S. Open, he now has a real chance of victory. He shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Love tb Duke -101 (W); Harrington tb Campbell +103 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Jeff Overton to beat Padraig Harrington +100 @ 5Dimes [available generally] TIED
Until he finished 38th last week, Overton had missed his last three cuts, but there was a good reason for this: he was carrying an injury that needed a cortisone shot into his collar bone the week of The Players Championship. Whereas most players would have been laid off by it, he tried to play through the injury in order to get in the top-60 of the World Rankings and so qualify for next week's U.S. Open. It didn't work, but he is now healthy again and in terms of his game, it is "as good as it's ever been". He could still qualify for next week with a win, but otherwise he is looking to secure his third top-10 finish here in five visits (all previous finishes in top-40); he is currently 4th. Harrington has been struggling with his game - three missed cuts in his last four starts - and his record here is not great - just one top-50 finish in five attempts. He is currently 11th alongside Overton, but he hit only four fairways and eight greens in regulation yesterday so the weakness in his game was evident in yesterday's round. He is yet to break 70 (averaging over 72) when starting the final round in the top-10 this year; he will need to strike the ball much better if he is to do so today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: McGirt tb Chopra -130 (W); Holmes tb Jacobson +120 (W); Overton tb Stenson -125 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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