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7-8; -5.06pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Sergio Garcia to beat Louis Oosthuizen -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Two players who have shown good form over the Playoffs, but whereas Garcia has reached a playoff for this title twice in six attempts, Oosthuizen in making his debut. In the last three years, only one player has managed to finish in the top-5 when making his debut at East Lake. Tiger Woods to beat Rory McIlroy +102 @ Pinnacle WON by 3
The course rookie angle also applies to this matchup with McIlroy making his debut and Woods finishing 1st or 2nd in his last four visits to East Lake. McIlroy may be the dominant figure in golf at the moment, but on a new course, paired with Woods, and faced with the double distraction of being in pole position for the £10 million jackpot and the Ryder Cup next week, I don't see this being the week that he makes it three wins in a row. Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated): Steve Stricker to Zach Johnson -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Steve Stricker to beat Matt Kuchar -115 @ The Greek [available generally] LOST by 4
Other than 6th in 2009, Stricker hasn't really done too well at East Lake in recent years, but he has the only person who went the whole round yesterday without dropping a shot. This is a tough course, which should suit him, so I'll back him in round two against Johnson who has had just one top-30 finish in his last five starts and Kuchar who has similarly had just one top-30 finish in his last five starts and has finished no better than 20th here previously. Bubba Watson to beat Webb Simpson -110 @ SkyBet WON by 2
Simpson had a really strong day on the greens yesterday - a SGP figure of -3.91 - but he still finished hte day over-par and in 22nd place ... the position he finished here last year on his debut. He hasn't been in great form recently and is a player to oppose at the moment, particularly against a much more consistent player. Rory McIlroy to beat Phil Mickelson -118 @ Expekt [available generally] WON by 3
McIlroy has some ground to make up after his 1st round - he is in 12th place alongside Mickelson - but I think that he will get better as he familiarises himself with the course more. He has finished ahead of Mickelson in eahc of their last six common events and this week should be no different. Jim Furyk to beat Zach Johnson -110 @ Paddy Power [2pts] WON by 5
In good form - 9th and 13th in the last two Playoff events - and with a good course history here that includes a win last time that he was here, Furyk is a player who should play well this week. He has finished ahead of Johnson in four of their last five common events, so should be able to continue that run this week. Round 3 plays (2pts): Dustin Johnson to beat Carl Pettersson -140 @ WSEX WON by 2
With finishes of 3rd, 4th and 6th in the Playoffs so far, Johnson is very much a player in form. He may not have a good record in his three previous visits to East Lake, but that has been bcause he has struggled to keep the ball on the fairway. He has recognised that he needed to change his course managment here and it has seen him start the weekend in 5th place. As he has acknowledged in interviews, if he keep the ball on the fairways, he does have a distinct advantage over the rest of the field in his ability to hit high approach shots with plenty of spin - necessary on this tough course. So long as he sticks to his gameplan, he should continue to play well this weekend and beat Pettersson who, by contrast, has finished 24th, 57th and 69th in the Playoffs so far. Matt Kuchar to beat Robert Garrigus -116 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Big-hitting Garrigus should struggle on this course unless he changes his gameplan like DJ. He clearly didn't yesterday when hitting only four fairways - a repeat performance should make it difficult for him to break par today, so the advantage should be with Kuchar in this matchup. Dustin Johnson to beat Matt Kuchar -117 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 3
But while Kuch should beat Garrigus, he should struggle against Johnson if he sticks to his gameplan. DJ has finished ahead of him in each of their last four common events and I don't think that Kuchar has the form (or the course history) to really challenge for this title. Dustin Johnson to beat Jim Furyk -125 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
It was a storming round by Furyk yesterday and he has successfully held onto the 2nd round lead for another 18 holes in each of the last four occasions. Furyk did win from the front in 2010, but he is 0-for-3 in 2012 when leading during an event and after such big collapses such as the U.S. Open, he may not be the player that he was two years ago. Again, if DJ keeps it on the fairway, he should win this matchup. Round 4 plays (2pts): Dustin Johnson to beat Webb Simpson -120 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 4
Johnson only hit five fairways yesterday and it cost him, but this is mainly a play against Simpson who does not have a good record here and has not shown any form recently - just one top-20 finish since the U.S. Open. Bo Van Pelt to beat Matt Kuchar -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
By contrast, BVP has finished in the top-30 in eight of his last nine starts and hasn't finished behind Kuchar in any of their last six common events. He should be the favourite to finish ahead of Kuchar as he has done in both times they have played in this event previously. Bo Van Pelt to beat Zach Johnson -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet] WON by 1
Van Pelt has equally been as dominant in this matchup against Johnson, finishing ahead of him in each if their last five common events and shooting the higher final round score just twice in 14 common events in 2012. Jim Furyk to beat Justin Rose -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet] LOST by 1
The only time that Rose has won when holding a share of the lead at the start of the final round was in the 2002 Nashua Masters; the other five times that he has won from the front on the finay day he has had either a two-shot lead (once) or a four-shot lead (four times). On a course on which he has yet to record a top-10 finish, this does not look like a day when Rose will be the winner. Jim Furyk to beat Brandt Snedeker -120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 4
Snedeker is 0-for-2 when leading at the start of the final round on the PGA Tour, so once again I'll oppose the leader with the dependable Furyk. |
