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3-1; +4.00pts (system plays: 5-2-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Peter Hanson to beat Zach Johnson +100 @ Stan James WON by 1
Hanson has finished ahead of Johnson in each of the WGC events in the last three weeks and finished ahead of Johnson when he made his debut on this course last year. Depite being a player that is typically 'under the radar' Hanson has had top-5 finishes in five of his last seven starts and no missed cuts for eight months. He continues to be a value player in matchups. Round 2 play (2pts): Jason Dufner to beat Padraig Harrington -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 7
Holding a three-shot lead so early in a tournament can be a difficult thing to defend, in much the same way as it is difficult to start a new round after such a career-round the previous day. One exception was Rory McIlroy's performance at the U.S. Open last year when his lead rose from 3 to 6 and then 8 shots over the next few days, but none of the previous seven players who have held at least three shot leads after the first round since 2005 have gone on to win. And that list includes Harrington who shot 63 in the opening round of the 2007 Nissan Open, but then every round thereafter was a higher score than the previous one. To show how difficult it is, the list includes Luke Donald who followed up his opening 64 in the 2009 Memorial Tournament with a 2nd round 76. So it is easy to back Dufner, who hit the ball further, hit more fairways and hit just as many greens as Harrington, but didn't have the career-round on the greens. He lies in 3rd place and looks set to continue his good form on this course.
Round 3 play (4pts): Chris Couch to beat Sang-Moon Bae +100 @ Stan James LOST by 5
Bae performed well in the WGC matchplay event to reach the quarter-finals, but his best finish in six other PGA/WGC strokeplay events this year is 14th - his only top-25 finish in a strokeplay event this year. Last week, he finished 71st of 74 at Doral. Now he lies 4th after a second round 66, but he was similarly 3rd after the 2nd round of the Farmers Insurance Open and shot 72-78 over the weekend to finish 33rd. Couch's form has been mixed this year, but he finished 5th here last year and is 4th now, so thiscourse clearly suits him. At plus-odds, he is worth backing in this matchup. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Perry tb Duke -103 (L); Furyk tb Garcia +120 (W); Streelman tb McGirt -110 (W)] Round 4 play (4pts): Ernie Els to beat Chez Reavie -110 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 5
Easy to oppose a player in the final round when they haven't had a single top-30 finish in the last six months. That makes Reavie's current 7th place position rather unexpected and he will have pressure that he has not faced for a long time. Els has been playing better this year, starting with his 2nd place finish in the Volvo Golf Champions, and he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation this week. Alongside Reavie, he is only three shots off the lead and should be more comfortable under the Sunday pressure. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Furyk tb Goosen +100 (W); Mallinger tb Duke -124 (L); Donald tb Simpson -125 (W); Streelman tb Micheel -130 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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