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1-2; -2.80pts (system plays: 11-4-1) Round 1 play (2pts): Vijay Singh to beat Robert Allenby +100 @ The Greek [available generally] LOST by 3
No evidence that Allenby likes this course as he has only played here once in the last decade and with just one top-50 finish in his last seven starts, he appears to be a go-against player this week. Vijay has played here in each of the last five years, finishing 4th, 5th, 51st, 13th and 43rd, and while he missed the cut last week, he has finished 16th in the Memorial Tournament and 9th in the Byron Nelson Championship in the last month. Not a winner of this event, but he should be around all four days and beat Allenby whenever matched with him this week. [unofficial rd1 system play: Baddeley tb Allenby +100 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Fredrik Jacobson to beat Keegan Bradley -125 @ SkyBet WON by 2
Jacobson defied his 'junkman' tag when actually led the field in greens in regulation yesterday. Being defending champion as well, it is little wonder that he enjoys playing this course. In good form as well, 27th in the St Jude Classic and 15th in the U.S. Open in the last two weeks, I can't see him finishing the second day too far from his current 2nd place position. Bradley finished a lowly 63rd last year, is already three shots behind Jacobson after the first round and hasn't had a top-20 finish since the Houston Open (the week before The Masters), so I don't see a likely winner of this matchup in the second round. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Poulter tb Hoffman -150 (L); Clark tb Cabrera -120 (L); Chalmers tb Jobe -130 (W); Villegas tb Gay -130 (W); Clark tb Gay -120 (W)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (4pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Bubba Watson -120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 3
This is more a play against Bubba - he starts the final round on the edge of contention in 12th place and four shots off the pace. His previous history when on such edges of contention does not suggest that he will be a serious contender today. In the 13 times that he has started the final round in 11th-20th position, he has finished the event in the top-10 just once (2010 PGA Championship) and broke 70 just twice; in the eight times that he has started the final round 4-5 shots off the pace in the last four years, he never finished in the top-10 and nor did he break 70 on any occasion. Add in his recent form - missed cuts in his last two starts - and his desire to spend more time off the course these days, he is a go-against in this round. Kuchar, for his part, ranks 2nd in top-10 finishes this season behind Jason Dufner, so another consistent round from him should secure another top-10 finish this week and a matchup win against Bubba. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Kuchar tb Harrington -130 (W); Harrington tb Appleby -150 (W); Van Pelt tb Bradley K -110 (L); Leishman tb Gainey -125 (W); Karlsson tb Villegas -125 (T); Baddeley tb Harman -120 (L); Hoffman tb Villegas -115 (W); Clark tb Driscoll -102 (W); Hoffman tb Claxton -120 (W); Van Pelt tb Adams -138 (W)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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