18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

1-3; -7.32pts  (system plays: 11-7-4) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Justin Rose +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365]  LOST by 1
Kuch looks to be a good player to back this week. Not sure if he will win the event this week, though he has stated in interview that this event is the most likely Major that he will win - but he is perfect for match bets at least. Not only does he rank 1st in scoring average, but also leads the Tour in Top-10 Finishes and Consecutive Cuts - he is 'Mr Consistent'. And this week he returns to a course on which he finished 14th as an amaetur in 1998. Add in 6th and 14th in the last two years, a great all-round game and the perfect temperament for a U.S. Open and I'm surprised that he is available at plus-odds. Rose can boast good form as well, but the last cut that he made in this event was in 2007 and at the Media Day for the BMW Championship last week, he stated that he was not playing Crooked Stick as he was too tired from having played the last four weeks, of which two events were in Europe, two events on the PGA Tour. Whereas Rose was spending some time with his family last week recharging the batteries ahead of this week's gruelling test, Kuchar was practising here at the course on Wednesday and Thursday. He has the complete game to cope with a U.S. Open, Rose's achilles heel is his putting and his holing out skills will be severely tested this week.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Simpson tb Bradley +105 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Tiger Woods to beat Webb Simpson -150 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
With the course becoming firmer and faster during the week, this will become increasingly a test of ball control and if Tiger can continue to play to his game-plan as he did yesterday, it is just a matter of his own execution of it that will determine if anyone else can win this title. He hit more fairways and greens than Simpson yesterday, but that should not be a surprise - he ranks 1st in Ball Striking on the PGA Tour whereas Simpson is 75th and whereas Tiger is coming off a win at the Memorial Tournament, Simpson has missed his last two cuts.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kuchar tb McIlroy -125 (T); Woods tb Mickelson -167 (W); Bohn tb Park -167 (L); Jacquelin tb Park -154 (W); Adams tb Chappell -161 (W); Adams tb Jacquelin -135 (W); Byrd tb Pettersson -125 (L); Rose tb Mahan -126 (L); Byrd tb Stanley -121 (W); Simpson tb Bradley -110 (T)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Jason Dufner -108 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 1
Kuchar lost out to back-to-back birdies from Rose to finish his round on Thursday, but I'll still back him again this week. He ranks 9th in driving accuracy this week (Tiger Woods is 1st) and 2nd in greens in regulation (Jim Furyk is 1st), so he has been showing the ball control necessary to play well this week. It also means that he clearly warrants his 9th place position (alongside Dufner) despite opening with a double-bogey yesterday. Dufner's best finish in five attempts in the U.S. Open is 33rd, so even though he is in the form of his life, this should be a hard grind for him unlike Kuchar who has the perfect game and temperament for this event.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Choi tb Toms -110 (W)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Padraig Harrington -125 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
He may not have been as impressive as when he was World #1, but Kaymer has been insistent in interviews that he has been "in a decent form for two months, but it hasn't really happened for [him]". With just one finish outside the top-20 since his opening event of the year, he has not been too far from his best and with a current position of 14th, he looks set to continue that run. What was particularly impressive yesterday was that he was three-over-par after three holes and bounced back with six birdies (no one had more birdies than Kaymer yesterday), so he is now only five shots off the lead. With each round lower than the previous one this week, Kaymer certainly has the momentum to make a challenge if the leaders falter. Harrington had just one birdie yesterday and is a shot further back, so it is difficult to see him mounting a challenge. He has also failed to finish in the top-10 on any of the last 10 occasions when starting the final round between 11th and 20th on the leaderboard, so his record when just off the pace is also unsupportive of him making a run today.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Furyk tb Els -110 (W); Woods tb Kuchar -161 (W); Rose tb Garcia -118 (W); Wi tb Watkins -138 (L); Adams tb Chappell -120 (L); Simpson tb McDowell +100 (W); Jacobson tb McDowell +115 (L); Rose tb Fowler -120 (T); Senden tb Chappell -150 (T); Woods tb Dufner -138 (L)]