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2-0; +8.60pts (system plays: 3-8-2) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): John Senden to beat Brendon De Jonge -125 @ 5Dimes WON by 5
Both players in the top-10 after the 1st round, but Senden played far better yesterday, ranking 20th in total driving and 4th in greens in regulation (De Jonge ranked 117th and 30th respectively). He is also much more likely to remain in the top-10: whereas De Jonge has finished in that position in any of his last 12 events, Senden has done so in five of his last 12 starts. It was a good start by the South African, but also given that he is playing his 9th event in ten weeks, I don't expect him to stay there. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Singh tb Slocum -138 (L); Singh tb Bae -120 (L); Garrigus tb Wagner -125 (L); Mayfair tb Points +110 (L)] Round 3 play (4pts): J.B. Holmes to beat Aaron Baddeley +115 @ 5Dimes WON by 6
Can't see why Holmes is such a large underdog in this matchup. Baddeley has struggled this week - just 11 players have hit fewer greens in regulation than him - but given that his best finish in seven attempts at Quail Hollow is 40th, it is presumably the course that doesn't suit his game, rather particular problems in department. However, missed cuts in two of his last three starts suggest that maybe there are some problems there. Not so for Holmes who has finishes of 8th and 13th in his last three starts and he has four top-10 finishes this season already. In terms of his ability to play this course setup, he was a top-10 finisher here last year. Both are ten shots off the lead, but I'd side with J.B. as the more likely to close the gap on Nick Watney today. [unofficial rd3 system plays: McNeill tb Karlsson +100 (W); Moore tb Senden +120 (W); Bae tb Noh -105 (L); Henry tb Driscoll +100 (L)] Round 4 play (4pts): Geoff Ogilvy to beat Stewart Cink -118 @ Expekt [available generally] TIED
No hesitation in opposing Cink who has been in poor form recently - three missed cuts in his last four starts - and has started the final round in the top-10 just three times since the start of 2010. On those three occasions, he has shot 70-74-74. That's quite a change in a player who won the Open Championship in 2009. And then there is his double-bogey on the last hole last night. Simon Dyson has just shown how difficult that can be to overcome when you're at the top of the leaderboard. Given Cink's recent form, it may also linger for him today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Garrigus tb Noh -125 (T); Overton tb O'Hair -111 (L); Fowler tb Watney +110 (W); Senden tb McNeill -120 (T); Toms tb O'Hair -110 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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