World Matchplay

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4-8; -10.02pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated):

Tiger Woods to beat Bubba Watson -138 @ Stan James [4pts]  WON by 1
This is Tiger's own event and one in which he has finished 1st or 2nd in nine of ten previous appearances. Watson has broken 70 just once in eight previous rounds at Sherwood, so I don't expect a reversal of fortunes this week.

Matt Kuchar to beat Brandt Snedeker -105 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 2
Making his debut in this event, Snedeker is opposable this week. Of the five players making their second appearance this week, they finished 6th, 10th, 13th, 17th and 18th (of 18) last year. True, he did win the Tour Championship and thus the FedEx Cup, but he is still a long way from being the World #1 that he has been talking about in press interviews this week. Kuchar finished last in his debut in this event two years ago, but finished 4th last year and a similar feat is predicted for Snedeker.

Nick Watney to beat Brandt Snedeker +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 8
Watney has been in very good form recently, winning the CIMB Classic in Malaysia a month ago and then shooting 62 in the final round of the HSBC Champions. With two course experience on his side, I'll back him against Snedeker as well.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Tiger Woods to beat Jim Furyk  -125 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365 and Paddy Power]  TIED
Furyk has finished ahead of Tiger just once in nine previous starts in this event and in just six of 21 common events over the last 12 months, so I think the probability of him failing again are much higher than these odds suggest.

Graeme McDowell to beat Webb Simpson -110 @ Stan James  WON by 7
Simpson finished 13th of 18 on his debut last year and failed to break 70 yesterday. Having not played since the Tour Championship ten weeks ago when he secured his first top-15 finish since the first week of July, I don't expect him to be competitive this week. The off-course controversy over the long putter certainly won't help. McDowell's record on this course reads - 2nd, 1st - and he currently lies 2nd after the opening round. He is a player who should be competitive this week,

Bubba Watson to beat Webb Simpson -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
With an 11-4-1 h2h record over the past 12 months, it is clear who dominates this matchup. His Simpson's rustiness as well, there should be plenty of value backing Bubba at these odds. 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Graeme McDowell -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 3

Matt Kuchar to beat Dustin Johnson -105 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  TIED

Brandt Snedeker to beat Dustin Johnson -110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 1

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Bo Van Pelt to beat Graeme McDowell -138 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
McDowell leads the event by two shots (down from a three-shot lead at the start of the 3rd round), but he has never previously won an event when starting the final round leading on his own. For example, he had the sole lead at the start of the 2011 Players Championship and shot 77 to finish 33rd. BVP has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two starts, so should be a strong opponent for GMac.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Keegan Bradley -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 1
Bradley has not shown any form recently (and he finished next-to-last in his previous visit), so it is a surprise that he is 2nd at this stage. With a 8-3-2 h2h record in favour of BVP in the final round alone over the last 12 months, he should be the favourite in this matchup.

Nick Watney to beat Bubba Watson +111 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 2
Bubba shot the low round of the day yesterday, so would be a go-against on that basis, and at nine shots off the pace, he is out of contention. With Watney in good form - two wins in his last seven starts - I don't see why he shoul be such a large underdog.

Tiger Woods to beat Graeme McDowell -163 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
Short odds, but given McDowell's previous final round performances when in the lead and Tiger just five shots back and playing in the group ahead of McDowell, the short odds are warranted.

Jim Furyk to beat Rickie Fowler -129 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 1
With a 12-5 h2h record against Fowler in 2012 and having shot the higher final round just three times this year, Furyk should be a clear favourite on that basis alone. As a former winner here (2009) and a very good record overall at Sherwood, he should be at shorter odds than these.