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1-0; +4.00pts (system plays: 7-2-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Webb Simpson -125 @ Bet365, Stan James and BetVictor [also available Boyle Sports] WON by 4
There has almost been a 'second-season' effect on Simpson this year. He hasn't been playing badly and missing cuts, he just hasn't been able to stay in contention since his top-10 finishes in the two of his first three events of the year: just one top-30 finish since the WGC World Matchplay and when he did get to 8th with one round to play in the WGC-Cadillac Championship, he finished with a 77 to end the tournament in 35th place. It was a similar story at the Arnold Palmer Invitational: he started the weekend in 6th place, but shot 73-78 to finish 36th. Last year's Webb Simpson would not have done that. And it was the same yesterday at a micro-level: he got himself to 6-under-par, but then took a double-bogey at his last hole to finish the day in 10th place and a shot behind Stricker. Could he rebound? Of course, but this year he appears less able to do so and that has meant that he has finished behind Stricker in all but one common event (and that was by a single shot) since September. With Stricker's record around this course (top-15 finish in three of four visits), I expect him to shoot another good round today. No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (4pts): Bubba Watson to beat Rickie Fowler -175 @ Bet365 TIED
A short price, but I think Bubba carries on as he did yesterday. This was always going to be a difficult event as the first time back since his emotional win at The Masters and it showed with a couple of opening 71s that saw him in 63rd place at the cut. He has spoken at length in his post-round interviews about being exhausted mentally from not only winning The Masters, but also the adoption of his baby son just two weeks before that win. But that was after his first two rounds; after his round yesterday he did talk about getting a lot of sleep and feeling better. But, in truth, that 'exhaustion' resulted in just a poor couple of rounds on the greens that cost him, not a lack of focus from tee-to-green. In all three rounds to date, he has hit 15 of 18 greens in regulation. Since the 2011 PGA Tour season ended at the Tour Championship in September, he has finished in the top-20 in all ten of the events that he has played and will surely do the same this week. He has raised to a whole new level and despite his early-week 'exhaustion', in last night's post-round interview he said "So long as I don't choke tomorrow, I should have a good shot at it.". He is clearly very confident in his game right now and so am I, enough to take this price against a player who has just one top-10 finish in ten attempts in 2012. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Rose tb McNeill -150 (W); Rose tb Simpson -115 (W); Dufner tb DeLaet -150 (W); Piercy tb Walker -123 (L); Piercy tb Reifers -138 (W); Donald tb Simpson -133 (W); Palmer tb DeLaet -123 (W); Holmes tb Summerhays -150 (W); McNeill bt Duke -133 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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