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4-4; -1.26pts (system plays: 1-0-1) Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated): Brandt Jobe to beat Bob Estes +100 @ 5Dimes [4pts] WON by 2
Two players who are not in the best form, but Jobe has still been the better player recently - the last time that he failed to finish ahead of Estes in a common event was at Harbour Town in April. In terms of course experience, Jobe has played Congressional three times, finishing inside the top-50 cut every time; Estes has played here five times and finished inside the top-50 just twice and never ahead of Jobe. Freddie Jacobson to beat Russell Henley -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill] LOST by 1
Henley has played Congressional just once previously - he finished 42nd in the 2011 U.S. Open, but he still finished six shots behind Jacobson. In fact, Jacobson has not only finished inside the top-40 in all four previous visits to this course, he was 2nd behind Anthony Kim in 2008. Together with a h2h record that shows Jacobson finishing ahead of Henley in six of their last eight common events, there appears to be little reason to oppose the Junkman in this matchup. Ben Crane to beat Chris Kirk -105 @ -105 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Crane has also finished 2nd on this course - 2005 Booz Allen Classic - and he finished inside the top-25 last year, which is far better than Kirk who shot 76-77 with only seven players shooting a higher 36-hole score. Kirk may have made a lot of cuts recently, but he hasn't secured a top-20 finish in the last three months, during which time Crane can count three top-20 finishes. With Kirk's poor record in the U.S. Open and on this course, it does not look as though he will end that barren run this week. Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated): K.J. Choi to beat Russell Henley -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 6
Opposed Henley yesterday because of his form and even though he played better than expected I will do so again. He finished yesterday in 5th place, but he was in a similar position after the opening round of the Memorial Tournament earlier this month and then shot 77. Choi is a former winner of this event on this course. Freddie Jacobson to beat Russelle Henley -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 6
Backing Jacobson again. He was one ahead with two holes to play, so yesterday's play was very close to being profitable. Adam Scott to beat Ryan Palmer -120 @ Paddy Power [2pts] TIED
Palmer has finished ahead of Scott just once this season, which is to be expected when the World #80 is matched against the World #4. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts): Andres Romero to beat Jason Kokrak -110 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power] LOST by 6
Admittedly, five of the events are on the Latinoamerica Tour, bur Romero has failed to convert a 54-hole lead into a win just once in seven previous occasions so I think that he will cope well with the lead today. The last time that Kokrak started the final round in the top-10 (the Wells Fargo Championship last month), he shot 80 to drop to 50th. Brandt Snedeker to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -144 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
With finishes of 8th, 5th and 11th in three of four previous visits to Congressional, it is no surprise that Snedeker starts the final round in the top-10 for the sixth time this season. On the previous five occasions this season he has shot 69 (to finish 3rd), 69 (2nd), 65 (2nd), 65 (1st) and 75 (6th, having started the final round of The Masters in the lead). Most bookies have only the four leaders ahead of him in the market and that seems fair given his record on this course and from this position. Richard H. Lee to beat Shawn Stefani -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 4
Having finished ahead of Stefani in seven of nine common events since March, it is clear who dominates this matchup. With Stefani struggling to find the fairways this week, he should struggle to score far more on this course that he has done so far this week. [unofficial rd4 system play: Jobe tb Yang -130 (W); Flores tb Thompson -135 (T)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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