18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-4; -0.68pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Zach Johnson to beat Russell Henley -110 @ Stan James and BetVictor  WON by 6
Backing experience in this matchup. Johnson is making his tenth consecutive appearance in this event and he missed the cut just once. This ball-striker's course clearly suits him as he has three top-10 finishes, plus an 11th place finish last year. Henley has played well this year, but of the 33 rookies who have competed at Bay Hill in the last four years, only Bud Cauley posted a top-10 finish. That points to experience over youth, for this week at least.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Nick Watney to beat Tim Clark -179 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 4
Big difference in the rd1 performances between these two players: Watney finished the day in 5th place, Clark finished it in 109th and four shots off the cut line. That will be a tough ask for Clark to make the weekend. He has made it from outside the top-100 after rd1 just once (in eight attempts) since the start of last season, averaging 72.63 in rd2 from that position. His best finish in a strokeplay event is 46th since the Sony Open in Hawaii, so I don't see him bouncing back from yesterday's round.

Zach Johnson to beat Russell Henley -105 @ Stan James [also available @ BetVictor]  LOST by 3
Repeating yesterday's play which, in its small way, confirmed the difficulties that rookies have on this course. Henley's 94th position is justified by his 98th rank in greens in regulation. Johnson, on the other hand, played better than he scored - he ranked 1st in driving accuracy and 3rd in greens in regulation in rd1 - so there is optimism that he can shoot an even lower round today.

Hunter Mahan to beat Russell Henley -167 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 3
Opposing Henley with another Bay Hill veteran. This is Mahan's 10th consecutive appearance in this event, with no missed cuts in the last five years and after his sub-par round yesterday, he looks set to maintain that streak. Like Johnson, the key to good scoring here is hitting the greens in regulation, for which he ranked in the top-10, so I expect another sub-par round from him today.

Luke Guthrie to beat Ben Kohles -110 @ Stan James  WON by 6
Two rookies in this matchup and Kohles did shoot the lower score yesterday, but last week was the first time in six events that Kohles has finished ahead of Guthrie and in terms of rd2, Guthrie leads Kohles 11-5 h2h. The final factor against Kohles is that this is only the second time that he has finished rd1 inside the top-10 on the PGA Tour. On the previous occasion (2013 Honda Classic), he shot 73 in the 2nd round and fell from 6th to 43rd.

Bill Haas to beat Jimmy Walker -135 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Two players with previous course experience who ended day one inside the top-5. This is something that Haas has done on 12 previous occasions on the PGA Tour, finishing the event in the top-15 on ten of those 12 occasions. Walker has done so on 13 previous occasions, but never has he previously converted any of those flying starts into top-15 finishes. I'll back Haas as the more likely to maintain his current position.

No round 3 plays, 

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Tiger Woods to beat Rickie Fowler -163 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally]  WON by 3

Jimmy Walker to beat Ken Duke -163 @ Stan James and Paddy Power [available generally]  TIED

Jimmy Walker to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -125 @ Stan James  LOST by 1

Brian Stuard to beat Mark Wilson -125 @ BetVictor [available generally]  LOST by 4

Tiger Woods to beat Justin Rose -150 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power and William Hill]  TIED