18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

8-2; +18.00pts  (system plays: 5-1-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Scott Piercy to beat Jonas Blixt +100 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 9
A new course but one which should suit Piercy more - it is more generous off the tee than Cog Hill which was previously used for this event, so it should favour the big-hitting American. Blixt is also rather wide off the tee, but without Piercy's length. In fact, ranked 176th for Total Driving and 174th for Greens in Regulation, it is rather surprising that he is even in the Playoffs. It is clear that his win at the Greenbrier Classic and 4th place finish in the PGA Championship changed his season. Piercy has finished ahead of Blixt in both of the Playoff events so far, has previous Playoff experience and is just outside the top-30 on the FedEx Cup Playoff Points list so he has a real chance of making a repeat appearance in the Tour Championship.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Patrick Reed -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 5

Brendon De Jonge to beat Jonas Blixt -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5

Charles Howell to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Huh tb Stroud -125 (W); Fowler tb Watney +115 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Roberto Castro -150 @ Bet365 [available generally]  WON by 7
Backing Stricker from yet another top-10 position. He hasn't won yet this season on his reduced schedule, but he has become extremely consistent and is very good from this position: he has been inside the top-10 on ten occasions since last season and finished the 3rd round in a lower position just once. For comparison, Castro has finished lower down the leaderboard after rd3 from the same position in four of six occasions. That is the difference between a player in the top-10 of the World Rankings and one ranked 82nd.

Steve Stricker to beat Jordan Spieth -125 @ Bet365  WON by 7
Spieth has had a remarkable rookie season, culminating in a place on the Presidents Cup team. But he does not yet have the consistency of Stricker who has finished ahead of him in every common event apart from the John Deere Classic which he won, but Stricker was still just behind him within the top-10. From this position, I'll back Stricker rather than Spieth who has shot 70 or higher in five of the six times he has started the 3rd round in the top-10, including the last Playoff event when he was in a very similar position after 36 holes, but then shot 73 in rd3 to drop from 6th to 29th.

Matt Kuchar to beat Boo Weekley -138 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365]  WON by 10
A basement battle here and that means a nervous weekend for Weekley who is currently projected to be 28th in the FedEx Cup Playoff Rankings and only the top-30 progress to the Tour Championship. He hasn't played particularly well since his win at Colonial in May - just one top-25 finish in the ten events since that win - and has struggled in all aspects of his game this week. Kuchar is currently 4th in the FedEx Cup Playoff Ranking and is only much more consistent - he has a 9-3-1 h2h record against Weekley this season - but should easily beat a player ranked 155th in 'Round 3 Scoring Average' many more times than these odds suggest.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Furyk tb Snedeker +110 (W); McIlroy tb Hoffman -120 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Hunter Mahan to beat Ryan Moore -103 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 3
Mahan is safely through to next week (currently forecast to be 15th in the FedEx Playoff Cup), whereas Moore will needs to be aggressive as he is currently forecast to be 36th so needs to improve his current 6th place position. Given that he currently ranks 166th (of 185) in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour, it looks unlikely that he will improve that position today. Mahan has a 7-2-1 h2h record against him in rd4 over the past 12 months, so there should be value in these odds.

Brendon De Jonge to beat John Merrick +101 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  TIED (Loss)
A similar story in this matchup. De Jonge will have to play very poorly today not to be in next week's Tour Championship, whereas Merrick's forecast position is 38th so he needs to improve by eight places in the FedEx Playoff Cup rankings and that means an aggressive round today. As in the previous matchup, he has failed to previously make this pay under final round pressure - he ranks 136th in Final Round Scoring Average this year, whereas De Jonge is 14th in this category.

Luke Donald to beat Matt Jones -114 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 1
A different type of play in this matchup. Both players are outside the standings for next week, currently forecast to be 41st and 39th respectively. It seems unlikely that either player will make it to next week's event, but with Jones ranking 44th in greens in regulation (and hitting no more than 11 greens in regulation in any round), it appears unlikely that he will shoot the very low round to progress. Donald's ball-striking has been much better this week - he ranks 8th in greens in regulation so far this week and only missed two yesterday - so he does look the more likely to give himself a chance of progression today.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molder tb Bae +120 (W); Els tb Cabrera -120 (L)]