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4-3; +1.70pts (system plays: 2-0-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Kevin Streelman to beat John Huh +100 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
Huh did finish 3rd last week in the Wyndham Championship, but that isn't enough to make him favourite in my book. He had been in poor recently, missing his previous four cuts, and hadn'r finished ahead of Streelman in any of their common events since June. Streelman's form is much more consistent than Huh's, as would be expected from a player inside the top-40 in the World Rankings, and he has the cut in all five previous appearances in this tournament, including 4th in 2008 and 3rd in 2010. Charley Hoffman to beat Ryan Palmer -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 3
A similar h2h record in this matchup: Palmer hasn't finished ahead of Hoffman in any event since May. And whereas Palmer didn't play on this course in 2009, Hoffman did and was 4th after rd1, 9th after rd2. Round 3 plays (2pts): Adam Scott to beat Charl Schwartzel -135 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Carib] WON by 2 Rickie Fowler to beat Gary Woodland -130 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Carib] LOST by 3 Round 4 plays (4pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Gary Woodland -138 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power [available generally] LOST by 5
Woodland has won from the front previously - he was a wire-to-wire winner in the Reno-Tahoe Open three weeks ago - but that was an event played alongside the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. so it was a far weaker field this this week. So, whilst he has been very impressive so far this week, I don't see him matching Kucar who has a 9-0-0 h2h record against him in common events in 2013. Adam Scott to beat Webb Simpson -103 @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib [available generally] WON by 5
Scott has hit the ball further and straighter off the tee and hit more greens in regulation than this opponent this week, so his game is in far better shape and looks more capable of closing the six-shot gap to the leaders than Simpson's. With just once event since the Players Championship in which he has finished ahead of Scott, it appears that Simpson's recent form is also indicative that he will finish behind Scott this week. Rory McIlroy to beat Sergio Garcia -107 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 3
With final round scores of 75-68-76-71 in his last four starts, it is clear why Garcia has failed to record a top-20 in any of those events. In fact, in his last 15 final round scores, he has broken 70 just four times with a best score of 68. He has been making cuts and being in contention, but has struggled on Sundays this season, so it certainly worth opposing with McIlroy who is coming off a top-10 finish in the PGA Championship and has been far better from tee-to-green than Garcia. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Rose tb Watson -120 (W); Points tb Chalmers +116 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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