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4-3; +4.30pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated): Charl Schwartzel to beat Keegan Bradley -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] LOST by 1
Opposing Bradley after his opening 60 yesterday. He is a former winner of this event, but it is still difficult to follow up such a low round. Given that he has never successfully held onto either a rd1 (twice) or rd2 lead (four times) for another 18 holes, he can certainly be opposed in this round with a player who finished outside the top-25 last week for the first time since October 2012. John Huh to beat Marcel Siem +100 @ Bet365 WON byh 4
I'd be looking to oppose Siem on his home Tour, so to be able to do so on the PGA Tour is a bonus. He ranked 119th in greens in regulation yesterday, which does not bode well for a low-scoring round today. Huh was much better from tee-to-green, so there should be value in these underdog odds. George McNeill to beat Dicky Pride -125 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Two players who finished low down the leaderboard in rd1, but it was McNeill who played in the tougher conditions in the afternoon. That Pride should struggle is not a surprise, he has missed four of his last five cuts, but McNeill played better than he scored: he ranks 10th in driving distance, 19th in driving accuracy and 38th in greens in regulation. He looks likely to secure his 15th victory over Pride in their last 20 common rd2 scores. Charley Hoffman to beat D.A. Points +100 @ Paddy Power TIED
Both players have a couple of top-10 finishes in this event and while Points has had a 1st and a 2nd place finish in the last couple of months, Hoffman still leads him 7-2-1 h2h this year. He looks likely to extend that dominance this week with Points playing so poorly yesterday - he ranked 137th in greens in regulation in rd1. Freddie Jacobson to beat Graham DeLaet -125 @ Bet365 [2pts] LOST by 2
Like Schwartzel, Jacobson finished outside the top-25 last week for the first time in a long time - he had been on a run of seven consecutive top-25 finishes. A player inside the top-50 in the World Rankings and with a top-10 finish on this course, I would expect him to beat a player outside the top-100 in the World Rankings and without a top-40 finish on this course. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts): D.A. Points to beat Nathan Green -150 @ William Hill [available generally] WON by 5
Huge gulf between these two in terms of course form - Points has finished 3rd, 7th, 40th, 19th in the last four years - and in current form - Green has missed six of nine cuts this years, whereas Points won the Houston Open seven weeks ago. Jason Day to beat Ryan Palmer -143 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Paddy Power] WON by 1
With course finishes of 1st, 5th and 9th in the last three years, it should not be a surprise to see Day in the top-20 again. He has recovered well from an opening 72, whereas Palmer fell out of contention with his 72 yesterday. Sang-Moon Bae to beat Tom Gillis -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 7
The two players immediately behind Keegan Bradley on the leaderboard, but this is Gillis' first cut that he has made in six starts. Bae earned himsef a place in the playoff for the 2012 Transitions Championship when starting the final round in 3rd place; the last time Gillis was in this position (2012 Crowne Plaza Invitational) he shot 76 in the final round to drop from 3rd to 19th. Keegan Bradley to beat Scott Piercy -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] TIED
Bradley's lead is down to just one shot after 54 holes, but he was denied only by a playoff in the previous occasion that he started the final round in the lead (2012 Northern Trust Open), Piercy had missed four of his last five cuts before this event (best-finish: 54th), so confidence should be rather fragile and I don't think Bradley will be put under too much pressure today from this chasing group. Martin Flores to beat Steve Marino -165 @ 5Dimes TIED
Opposing Marino who is on a Major Medical Extension after missing the second half of last season. He has achieved just one top-50 finish so far in nine events this year and is averaging 75.0 in the final round this year. Flores finished 10th the last time that he was in Texas and is currently ahead of Marino in 19th place. Playing under much less pressure than Marino, he should be able to win this matchup. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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