18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-5; -2.32pts  (system plays: 1-3-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

John Merrick to beat Scott Stallings -110 @ Stan James  TIED
Opposing Stallings in this matchup. It is easy to remember that he finished 4th-4th-2nd in three consecutive weeks in May-June, but in the next five starts he has finished 53rd-mc-23rd-mc-mc, averaging 72.79 over that period. This is a typical profile for Stallings who has long periods of poor play and then very strong periods of form. Last year, for example, he missed eight cuts in ten events before finishing 1st-7th-mc. On a course which requires accuracy off the tee, he looks unlikely to reverse his recent lack of form.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Chris Kirk -125 @ Bet365 [also avialable @ Stan James]  LOST by 1
Schwartzel played much better than his current 93rd position shows: he ranked 18th in greens in regulation, as well as inside the top-40 for driving distance and driving accuracy. It is clear where his problems were yesterday and those are much easier to rectify than poor ball-striking. He has been in a similar twice so far this year and he shot 70 in rd2 of the Crowne Plaza Invitational and 68 in rd2 last week at Muirfield to jump to 11th, so he has good history of bouncing back rather than giving in when out of contention so early in a tournament. Kirk, on this year's evidence, tends to move in the opposite direction when inside the top-10 after rd1, so this looks a good matchup despite their 1st round scores.

Charl Schwartzel to beat Graeme DeLaet -140 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Like Schwartzel, DeLaet had trouble early in his round and bounce back to be one shot ahead of the South African. He has been in good form, but with a best finish of 46th in his home Open, he looks unlikely to be able to compete this week with the added pressure of no home winner since 1954. I don't see him competing against a player ranked #13 in the World Rankings if Schwartzel does bounce back today as expected.

Camilo Villegas to beat Johnson Wagner -145 @ 5Dimes  WON by 8
With a record of missing the cut in all four previous attempts in this event and currently in 126th place after rd1, it looks like 5-for-5 for Wagner, particularly as only five players hit fewer greens in regulation than him yesterday. In their 11 common events in the last six months, Wagner has finished ahead of Villegas just once. The Colombian deserves to be a strong favourite in this matchup.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Huh tb Bae -105 (L); Donald tb Furyk -110 (L)] 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat David Mathis -143 @ Bet365 [also avialable @ Ladbrokes]  LOST by 2
Huge difference between a player inside the World Top-100 and one outside the top-500. They have played in eleven common events since March and Palmer is a perfect 11-0-0 against his opponent. Ranked 3rd in greens in regulation so far this week, as well as top-10 for driving distance and top-20 for driving accuracy, he looks far more likely to move up the leaderboard today.

Bubba Watson to beat Patrick Reed -143 @ Bet365 [available generally]  LOST by 2
Another mismatch - Bubba is inside the top-20 in the World Rankings and Reed outside the top-200. He has finished behind Reed just once since March and currently leads the field in greens in regulation so he is clearly playing well. This is the third time this season that Reed has started the weekend inside the top-5; he has finished the 3rd round 17 and 7 places lower down the leaderboard on those two occasions.

Brandt Snedeker to beat Matt Kuchar -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Bet365, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 1
Snedeker has looked in very good in recent weeks, much better than Kuchar, and he has dominated this matchup for longer, finishing ahead of Kuchar in 9 of their last 12 common events. With a top-5 finish on the course last time round, I expect Sneds to continue his dominance of this matchup.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Tringale tb Castro -111 (L)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Brandt Snedeker to beat David Lingmerth -140 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 5
Snedeker is 2-for-5 in converting 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour and the one time that he had the lead on his own at the start of the final round, he shot 78 in the Phoenix Open to finish 43rd. That makes him a potentially shaky leader, but he is paired with a player who has previously started the final inside the top-5 just four times on the PGA & Web.com Tours. I don't see him being competitive, so I'll take the .5 shot handicap with 5Dimes as the best value on offer for this matchup.

Charley Hoffman to beat Greg Owen -130 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  LOST by 1
Owen has played well this week and enters the final round in the top-5, but this is a position from which I would always oppose him. He was always vulnerable under final round pressure, but the nadir came in the 2006 Bay Hill Invitational: leading by one shot with one hole to play, he miss from three-and-a-half feet for par on the 17th and then again from two-feet for his bogey. He has been inside the top-5 at the start of final round eight times since (seven on the Web.com Tour) and still hasn't won, averging over 72 in rd4 from that position. Little wonder that in an article earlier this year (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2295505/Greg-Owen-haunted-2006-Arnold-Palmer-Invitational-loss.html), the opening line was: "Seven years on and he still thinks about his ‘what if?’ moment". So it's very easy to oppose him with a player in much better form and, for whom, this will be the fifth time that he has been in the top-5 after 54 holes this year.

Charley Hoffman to beat Roberto Castro -110 @ Stan James  LOST by 4
I'll also back Hoffman to beat Castro who is a shot further back in 10th place. I don't see Castro as vulnerable under pressure as Owen, but he has started the final round of a PGA or Web.com Tour inside the top-10 on ten occasions in the last four seasons: he has finished lower down the leaderboard at the end of the day then he started it on every single occasion. That's enough for me to oppose him in the final round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Schwartzel tb Kirk -150 (T); Campbell tb Every -125 (W)] 

Additional round 4 play (4pts):

Dustin Johnson to beat Kyle Stanley -140 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  WON by 3
I hadn't liked the lines on this matchup earlier, but I hadn't seen this offering from 5Dimes. This would have been my top-ranked play, knocking the Hoffman/Castro matchup to 'unofficial system play' status, so I'll add it now. Firstly, Stanley had been completely out-of-form until this event - he had missed his last four cuts in a row - so he may struggle with his ball-striking if the conditions are, as prediced, tougher today. Secondly, Johnson has dominated this matchup, finishing ahead of his opponent in 17 of their last 23 common events. And thirdly, Johnson's record when starting the final round in the top-6 is very impressive: since September 2010, he has been in this position ten times and ended the day inside the top-6 on all ten occasions, averaging less than 70 and falling no more than one place during the final round. He is clearly a good player when in final round contention and should beat Stanley many times more than these odds suggest.