|
2-0; +4.00pts Round 1 play (2pts): Carl Pettersson to beat Scott Piercy -104 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 2
A cautious opening to the season given the weather forecast, so just one pick at low stakes. If there is one player in this field who should be sturdy in the wind, it is the Swede. But more than that, he is making his fifth appearance at the Plantation course and on his last visit (2011), he led after the opening round before finishing 4th. He was also in good form before the Christmas break, finishing 7th and 4th in December, which should be far easier to carry over to this week than Piercy's form - he last played in an event nine weeks ago. Such Tour rustiness can be a factor at the start of the season after such a long layoff and that might explain why he has never secured a top-10 finish in January; Pettersson has done so in each of the last three years in Hawaii alone. No round 2 plays. Round 3 play (2pts): Jason Dufner to beat Ryan Moore -125 @ Bet365 and Paddy Power WON by 7
Both shot the same scores yesterday (72-77) to fall out of contention at 14 shots off the pace. For Dufner, that is a surprise - he had three top-3 finishes in his last five events of 2012, playing up to 9th December, and had broken into the top-10 in the World Rankings. For Moore, it is less so. He did win the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open three months ago, but that was the last competitive golf he played until yesterday - his first child, a son, was born 12 days later and he has spent time in interviews detailing how he plans to change his schedule this year and spend more time with his family. In their current position, it looks like it will be the golfer from Auburn who will be the more motivated in this round. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
