18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

2-6; -20.50pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

John Senden to beat Brian Davis -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 6
Struggling to find an edge in the first round matchups, but will opt for a small plays on this matchup. Senden has not been as impressive this season as previously, but course experience is vital here and he has missed just two cuts in the last 10 years at Colonial. Davis has missed the cut in both of the last two years here and for all the improvement in his game this year, he still only has one top-25 finish since July 2012. Languishing in 100th place in 'Pre-Cut Scoring Average' (40 places below Senden), he is still a long way from being a play to back in matchups.

Round 2 play (2pts):

Chris Kirk to beat John Huh +110 @ William Hill  WON by 2
I'll certainly take these odds on Kirk in this matchup. He has made 11 of 12 cuts this years, ranks 13th in Scoring Average on the PGA Tour (more than 90 places ahead of Huh), has finished 16th and 5th in each of the last two years here and has finished ahead of Huh in all eight common events this year. 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Zach Johnson +110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and The Greek]  LOST by 2
Johnson has won this event in two of the last three years, but Furyk also has a very good record in this event so I still wouldn't make him a sizeable underdog on that basis. However, given that Furyk has finished ahead of Johnson in 12 of their last 15 common events, I wouldn't make him an underdog at all. The fact that he completed his 2nd round yesterdayand Johnson had to wake at about 4:30am to get ready to complete his 2nd round this morning simply adds to the value in this play.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Brendon De Jonge to beat Tommy Gainey -163 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 6
This is the first time that Gainey has started the final round inside the top-50 since January, so he desperately needs to convert this 20th place position into a high finish. Such pressure on his game is unlikely to be beneficial, so I'll back De Jonge to finish ahead of Gainey for the 13th time in their last 15 common events since January.

Graham DeLaet to beat Boo Weekley -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Bet365 and The Greek]  LOST by 8
Neither player has been in this position - 2nd with a round to play - a great deal in the last few years, but Delaet has certainly dominated this matchup: 11-5-1 since July last year. He also ranks in the top-10 for dirving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation this week, so his ball-striking is very good.

Tim Clark to beat John Rollins -150 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 1
Twice a runner-up in this event, I'll back Clark over Rollins who had an extremely poor record on this course until this week. Given that it has been over a year since Rollins shot a lower final round score than Clark, he looks much less likely to retain his current top-10 position.

Matt Kuchar to beat Boo Weekley -150 @ Stan James  LOST by 2
A good back-nine saw Kuchar regain the lead during the 3rd round and even though he is leading the event, I expect him to be a tough player to overhaul - he is 1-for-1 when leading after 54 holes on the PGA Tour.

Graham DeLaet to beat Martin Flores -150 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 3
Another matchup dominated by one player: DeLaet has finished ahead of Flores in each of their last eight common events and in 11 of 12 since the start of the season. This is just the third time that Flores has started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10, so this matchup dominance is likely to continue for another week.