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7-2; +12.96pts (system plays: 2-3-3) Round 1 plays (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Henrik Stenson -105 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and Carib] LOST by 3
Two players in very good form - Furyk with top-10 finishes in his last four starts and Stenson with five in his last six - but the only time that Stenson played in this event was in 2007 and he finished 55th. Furyk has played here in all six years of the Playoffs, plus 2003 and 2004 as well, and has five top-15 finishes on this course. That should enough to give him the edge this week. Zach Johnson to beat Bubba Watson +105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Johnson is another in great form with five top-10 finishes in a row and he has top-30 finishes on this course in all five times that he has played here in the Playoffs. Watson hasn't secured a top-10 finish in seven visits to TPC Boston or since the Travelers Championship in June, so I don't see why he the favourite in this matchup. Jason Dufner to beat Keegan Bradley -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
And another in very good form with finishes of 4th in the Bridgestone Invitational and 1st in the PGA Championship. Dufner has a good record on this course - 2nd in 2009 and five cuts made out of five, which is better than Bradley who has missed one of two cuts here. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Johnson Z tb Stenson +105 (L); Garrigus tb Chappell -105 (W)] Round 2 plays (2pts): Lee Westwood to beat Patrick Reed -138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, The Greek and Carib] TIED
Reed has shown good form before his missed cut last week, but he is still at least one level below Westwood who holds a 6-2-0 h2h record against him in 2013 (and 3-1-0 in rd3 alone). His ball striking was also poor yesterday (67th in driving accuracy and 85th of 100 in greens in regulation), so he should struggle to beat Westwood who finished yesterday's round in the top-10. Bob Estes to beat Kevin Stadler -125 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Two players in the top-10 after day one, but at least that is a more familiar position for Estes who finished 8th two weeks ago; Stadler's last top-10 finish was back in April and even though he also started well last week, he then shot 73-76-71 over the next three rounds to drop to 43rd. Steve Stricker to beat Charl Schwartzel -125 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Stan James and Carib] TIED
I'll gladly take these odds in this matchup. Stricker is a perfect 9-0-0 again Schwartzel over the last 12 months and is already in the top-10 after rd1. He has also finished in the top-15 in six of the last seven years here, whereas Schwartzel has failed to finish in the top-20 in two attempts. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Stricker tb Snedeker -125 (T); Kuchar tb Day -105 (W)] Round 3 plays (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Graeme McDowell +100 @ Ladbrokes [available generally] WON by 6
Both players outside the top-40 and while GMac's play this is worthy of his leaderboard position, Furyk's isnt - he is 5th in driving accuracy, 15th in greens in regulation and 10th in scrambling so far this week. I'd backed him in rd1 as a player in good form and with five top-15 finishes on this course; I'll certainly do so again against a player in indifferent form and with a best finish of 37th on this course. Steve Stricker to beat Jason Day -110 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib] WON by 4
Two players inside the top-10, but with just one top-20 finish in his last five starts, Day's form is not as strong as Stricker. And with Stricker holding a 9-2-0 h2h record in rd3 against Day since the start of last season, the American looks more likely to consolidate his current position in today's round. Lee Westwood to beat Graeme McDowell -150 @ 5Dimes TIED
This is another matchup in which there is a dominant h2h record on Moving Day - Westwood leads McDowell 8-2-1 over the last 12 months. He was a top-15 finisher on his course debut last year and has shown much better form than McDowell recently, so the price is warranted. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Simpson tb Kaymer -110 (T); Streelman tb Hearn +120 (L)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Henrik Stenson to beat Sergio Garcia -103 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib] WON by 7
Opposing Garcia who has won just three of the seven times that he has started the final round with a 2-3 shot advantage. With Stenson having finished in the top-3 in four of his last five starts, he is playing well enough to beat a fragile leader. Keegan Bradley to beat Chris Kirk -126 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
Kirk's place in the top-20 is surprising given his ball-striking so far this week - he ranks 65th (of 76) in driving distance, 70th in driving accuracy, 44th in greens in regulation and 44th in scrambling. He has secured just one top-20 finish in his last 15 starts, so it does look as though he will struggle to stay there today. I'll back Bradley to finish ahead of his for the 9th time in 12 common events. Justin Rose to beat Charl Schwartzel -115 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available Carib] WON by 2
This is another matchup in which one player dominates the head-to-head: Schwartzel has finished ahead of Rose just four time in their last 27 common events. With Schwartzel ranked a lowly 119th in final round scoring average, Rose should continue his dominance of this matchup. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Rose tb Day -111 (T); Rose tb Kuchar -110 (L)] |
