18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-6; -1.10pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Vijay Singh to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
A lot is expected of the 'Belgian Bomber' this year and I am sure that he will be in contention for several PGA Tour titles this year, but it is still a big ask for him to perform on his first start as a PGA Tour member. He did finish 9th of 32 in the Volvo Golf Champions in South Africa earlier this month, but I think the value will lie in opposing him for a while until the hype dies down, particularly as he is playing on courses for the first time. That is certainly not the case with the veteran Singh, who, despite being eligible for the Champions Tour next month, still finished in the top-20 in his previous start this season (the Sony Open in Hawaii) and has finished in the top-20 in this event in both of the last two years.

Stewart Cink to beat Jonas Blixt +110 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [available generally]  LOST by 1
Cink's troubles since his tried to change his golf swing - he didn't record a single top-10 finish between May 2011 and the end of last season - are well-documented, but a change in swing philosophy this season has already earned him rewards. He recorded that long-awaited top-10 finish last week and could have been set for a much higher finish had he not found water on the last two holes. Was it confidence, rustiness or the effect of pressure of his re-formulated swing? Either way, it should not re-occur in the first round and he should be backed at these odds to beat Blixt whom, despite Cink's difficulties last season, he beat in 11 of 17 1st and 2nd rounds last year. With Cink's record of four top-15 finishes in his last five visits to Torrey Pines, he may well continue his revival this week.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Bo Van Pelt to beat Graham DeLaet -163 @ Stan James  LOST by 2
Short odds, but Van Pelt and DeLaet have played in 14 common events over the past year ... BVP has finished the event higher than DeLaet in 11 of the 14 events and that dominance is even stronger duing an event once it has got underway - BVP leads 24-6-1 in rounds 2, 3 and 4 over that period.

Tiger Woods to beat Bill Haas -150 @ Paddy Power  WON by 4
A similar dominance exists in this matchup hence the value in the short-priced favourite. Tiger has finished ahead of Haas in each of their last seven common events and then there is Tiger's record at Torrey Pines ...

Dustin Johnson to beat Keegan Bradley -135 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [available generally]  WON by 5
A better price, but not the same dominance, though Johnson has finshed ahead of Bradley in five of their last seven common events, despite withdrawing at the Sony Open following his Tuesday win in the Hyundai TOC. He didn't make the most of a good front-nine yesterday and now lies in 36th place, but I still expect him to have a good week. He was 3rd here two years ago and he has shown that can play just as well in bad weather.

Dustin Johnson to beat Brandt Snedeker -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Snedeker hasn't. Whereas Johnson's average position is 6 places higher on a leaderboard during a round played in bad weather, for Snedeker, it is an average of 10 places lower down the leaderboard. Together with a 9-4 h2h record in his favour, Johnson should be more likely to shoot a low round today than Snedeker who has the added pressures of being defending champion and having to defend a 1st round lead in this event on the much tougher South Course today.

Vijay Singh to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -111 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Repeating the 1st round matchup. Vijay has a good history in bad weather and after yesterday's easier course setup, they move to the former U.S. Open, the South Course today. The Fijian's experience will be even more relevant today as he seeks to consolidate his current top-20 position.

Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated):

John Senden to beat Jimmy Walker +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Boyle Sports] [4pts]  LOST by 2
Senden doesn't have a great record on Sundays, but he is a good player to side with at this stage of the tournament: against Walker he has a 14-3-0 h2h record against Walker in rd2 and a 9-4-1 h2h record against him in rd3 since the start of last season. And Walker looks opposable being in 3rd place - four times he started the 3rd round in the top-5 last year; four times he shot an over-par score in that 3rd round.

Casey Wittenberg to beat Erik Compton -130 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 1
A double-winner on the Web.com Tour last year, Wittenberg looks a better player than when he was last on the PGA Tour in 2009 and he now sits alongside Compton in 3rd place on the leaderboard. Siding with the player ranked over 300 places higher in the World Rankings. The one negative may have been that he is in the same group as Tiger Woods, but they were similarly paired together in the final round of last year's U.S. Open - Wittenberg shot 70 to Tiger's 73.

Charlie Wi to beat Luke Guthrie +100 @ 5Dimes, The Greek and WSEX [also available @ Carib and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 4
Two more players starting the weekend in the top-10. For Wi, this was a common occurrence last year - he started the 3rd round in the top-10 in six PGA Tour events last year and finished that round still in the top-10 every time. Guthrie did so once last year and promptly dropped from 5th to 19th after round 3.

Nick Watney to beat Tiger Woods +150 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 2
Since the scandal broke in late 2009, Tiger has held the 36-hole lead just four times: 2011 Australian Open - he then shot 75 in rd3, finishing 3rd; 2012 Arnold Palmer Invitational - he then shot 71 in rd3, finishing 1st; 2012 U.S. Open - he then shot 75 in rd3, finishing 21st; 2012 PGA Championship - he then shot 74 in rd4, finishing 11th. Yes, this is Torrey Pines and he has a great record here and yes, he was very impressive yesterday, but he is still not the player that he was before 2009. Watney will be playing with far less pressure in 9th place and is a former winner of this event (2009) with three top-10 finishes in the last four years. The value must surely be with Watney at these odds.

No round 4 plays.