18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-2; +12.38pts  (system plays: 1-1-2) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

David Hearn to beat Brooks Koepka -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 6
Koepka has had quite a year in Europe this year, winning three times on the Challenge Tour to earn an automatic Tour Card for the European Tour where he has earned five top-30 finishes in eight starts. The former Florida State player is now competing in his first (non-Major) PGA Tour event and he clearly is a great prospect. However, Hearn reached the penultimate stage of the Playoffs, had been in good form until the inter-season break and finished 7th on this course two years ago. I'd price him as the favourite in this matchup in a PGA Tour event at the moment.

No round 2 plays. 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Ryo Ishikawa to beat Andres Gonzales -138 @ Stan James  WON by 2
Backing Ishikawa as he has been in great form recently finishing in the top-10 in each of the last three Web.com Tour Finals events and opposing Gonzales who shot the lowest round of the day yesterday and the lowest round of his Tour career: 62. It is notoriously difficult to follow-up such a low score.

Justin Leonard to beat Mike Weir -135 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 4
Two players who made it to the weekend on the cut line, but have been playing very differently so far this week: of the players that made the cut, whereas Leonard ranks 7th in greens in regulation, Weir ranks last in that category and there are only eight players who hit the ball shorter off the tee and even less than have been more errant. So I don't see Weir improving his lowly leaderboard position.

John Peterson to beat Michael Putnam -110 @ Stan James  WON by 3
Backing the hot player in this matchup. Peterson finished the 2013 Web.com Tour with consecutive finishes of 3rd, 5th, 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd to finish 1st in the Web.com Tour Finals Priority Rankings and finish the season with the lowest scoring average on the Web.com Tour. It has seen him finish ahead of fellow Web.com graduate, Putnam, in each of their last six common events, so I'll back him to continue that streak this week.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Cink tb Lee -125 (L); Molder tb Blixt -120 (T)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Ben Martin to beat Jim Herman -110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
Two players inside the top-10, but this is a position from which Martin has previously done well. In the eight previous times that he has started the final round of a PGA or Web.com Tour event inside the top-10, he has broken 70 every time. With a h2h record that shows Martin is 8-for-8 in the past 12 months, he should be a strong favourite in this matchup.

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Spencer Levin -125 @ Stan James  WON by 3
In the last six months, Matsuyama has finished 21st or better in 15 of 16 events and while his three wins have been in Japan, those high finished have included two Majors, three other PGA Tour events and a WGC event. Currently 12th and ranking 4th for DD, 17th for DA and 6th for GIR, he is certainly playing well enough to extend that run for another week. Levin, by comparison, ranks 48th, 66th and 74th in those categories, so he shouldn't be able to compete with the Japanese player today.

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Jeff Overton -112 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  WON by 3
Overton is another who ball-striking has been much worse that Matsuyama's this week. And given that he has recorded just one top-25 finish in his last 22 starts (and that was over six months ago), it seems rather unlikely that he will be able to hold onto his current 20th place position.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: MacKenzie tb McNeill -104 (W); Davis tb Ishikawa -111 (T)]