18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

6-4; +1.45pts  (system plays: 3-2-1)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Graham DeLaet to beat Bud Cauley +125 @ Stan James  WON by 5
Strong play on DeLaet who has played on this course in the last three years and finished 45th and 12th (Cauley is making his debut) and is in fine form having finished 3rd and 8th in his last two starts (Cauley's last top-10 finish was 11 months ago). With this comparative form, it is warranted that DeLaet holds a 11-4-0 h2h lead over his opponent in 2013 (and 11-3-1 in rd1).

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Tommy Gainey to beat Johnson Wagner -125 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
Needing just three birdies in the last six holes, Wagner was on '59-watch' yesterday, so the fact that he then had six pars should be enough to oppose him today after yesterday's excitement. However, that round came out of nowhere. He has missed the cut in his last seven starts. He is now in a matchup with joint-leader Gainey who has finished ahead of him in six of their last seven common events. Wagner does have the better record of converting leads into wins, but on the two previous occasions that Gainey has held the lead after rd1, he managed to retain his lead in rd2 as well. With Wagner's form so poor until yesterday, a repeat of yesterday's scoring seems very unlikely.

Jordan Spieth to beat Russell Henley -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
They may have played in just seven common events, but Henley has yet to shoot the lower rd2 score than his opponent. On the basis of yesterday's play - Henley ranked 127th in driving accuracy and 122nd in greens in regulation - he doesn't appear to have enough ball control to reverse that matchup record today.

Bill Haas to beat Graham DeLaet -138 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Opposing DeLaet who was an easy winner agains Cauley yesterday. Whereas DeLaet has a best-finish of 12th on this course, Haas lost out only in a playoff to Scott Stallings in 2011. And in terms of play yesterday, it is easy (as with the above play) to oppose a player who ranked outside the top-100 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation in the previous round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Senden tb Bowditch -163 (L); Mickelson tb Stallings -125 (L)]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Russell Henley to beat Johnson Wagner -138 @ Ladbrokes [available generally]  LOST by 8
Continuing to oppose Wagner who wasn't as impressive yesterday as he slipped down to 2nd place. With his recent form that has seen him finish behind Henley in 9 of 12 common events this year, the momentum should be with the Tour rookie.

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Jeff Overton -120 @ Stan James [also available @ Paddy Power]  WON by 3
With recent neck and hip injuries, Oosthuizen had not been on the radar for the first couple of rounds, but after opening with 67-68, he appears to be fully fit on this week's evidence. On that basis, I'll back the World #10 in this matchup at this price.

Jordan Spieth to beat Dong-Hwan Lee -150 @ Stan James and Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 1
Lee did finish 3rd last week in the AT&T National, but his previous four finishes had been 43rd, wd, mc and 51st so I'm not convinced that his form will last. Spieth has been playing much better this year - he has seven top-10 finishes compared to Lee's two despite playing fewer events - so the odds are warranted.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Blixt tb Curtis -110 (W); Chappell tb Campbell -150 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jordan Spieth to beat Steven Bowditch -175 @ Stan James, Ladbrokes and ToteSport [available generally]  LOST by 5
Spieth hasn't been far from the best player from tee-to-green this week, but he has been scoring well and he now starts the final round alongside Bowditch in 4th place. Today it is a matter of experience of dealing with pressure as well as gameplay so there is only one likely winner in this matchup on that basis: Spieth already has seven top-10 finishes this week, Bowditch has no top-50 finishes in his last 13 starts - when he started the weekend in 2nd place in the Texas Open in April, he shot 77-77 over the weekend to finish 69th.

Jonas Blixt to beat Matt Jones -125 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 1
With rain forecast for most of the day and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, performances in wet conditions have been a factor in this week's play. Whereas Jones has averaged 1.4 (adjusted) shots higher in wet conditions relative to his average (adjusted) score in the last 5 seasons (the most recent example of which was 75 in rd4 of the Wells Fargo Championship); for Blixt his average (adjusted) score is 1.2 shots lower in wet conditions (the most recent example of which was 66 in the 3rd round of the Nordea Masters).

Rory Sabbatini to beat Tommy Gainey -125 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Stan James and Carib]  WON by 5
Gainey must be trying for the 'Iron Man' title on the PGA Tour: since Tamapa Bay Championship in March, the only weeks that he has not played have been the weeks of The Masters and the U.S. Open. With that schedule, it is not surprising that when he started the final round of the Travelers Championship two weeks ago in 7th place (as this week), he shot 72 to finish 18th. In fact, in the  six times that he has started rd4 in the top-10 since the start of last season, he has fallen to 18th, 40th, 31st, 3rd, 52nd, 42nd. With the exception of last year's Crowne Plaza Invitational, he has performed very poorly in this position. With just one top-30 finish in his last 21 starts, he certainly looks opposable with a player who finished 7th in the St Jude Classic last month and 9th in The Heritage.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Watson tb Horschel -110 (T); Watson tb Chappell -138 (W)]