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1-4; -7.70pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Chad Campbell to beat Ted Potter -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Both players have been in poor form recently - Potter has missed his last four cuts, whereas Campbell has a best finish of 50th in his last four cuts - so the decisive edge lies in their course histories at Harbour Town. Campbell has been inside the top-5 after two rounds in each of the last three years here, whereas Potter is making his course debut. With the exception of Boo Weekley (champion in 2007 and 2008), this course typically requires experience and Campbell certainly fits that bill. Ben Crane to beat Stewart Cink -105 @ Bet365 TIED
Cink certainly has experience here and is a double-winner (2000 and 2004), but his game has been, for some time, a long way from the level that saw him play well here. There has been some upturn in form recently, but I'd rather back Crane who was 4th last time out in Houston and finished 6th in his previous appearance at Harbour Town. Brian Harman to beat Josh Teater -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] TIED
Teater had some high finishes at the start of the season, but has yet to record a top-25 finish since the Tour moved to Florida in March. By contrast, Harman has had three top-25 finishes in that spell and is backed to beat a player who has struggled on this course: he has finished mc, 56th, mc in his three visits and averages 73.25 per round. Round 2 plays (2pts): Carl Pettersson to beat Brian Davis -120 @ 5Dimes TIED
Opposing the rd1 leader. This will be only the fourth time that he had a PGA Tour event after rd1 and the last time was back in 2008. On those three occasions, he finished 3rd (36-hole event), 44th and 13th. I'd like to back him as he did the 'right thing' three years ago when in the playoff - quite a contrast with last week - but I just don't see him holding onto such a lofty leaderboard position. Webb Simpson to beat Marc Leishman -125 @ Stan James TIED
Leishman is another who finished high on the leaderboard after day one - he is currently 4th and two shots behind Davis. But his record from fast starts is poor. He is 0-for-9 when finishing day one in the top-10 and on none of those nine occasions he has finished the second round closer to the lead than at the start of the day. Without a top-40 finish on this course in four attempts and ranking only 76th in greens in regulation yesterday, I don't see him holding onto his leaderboard position either. Given the windy conditions forecast, this should be a good situation for Simpson to move closer to the lead. Carl Pettersson to beat Marc Leishman -138 @ Paddy Power LOST by 4
Defending champion Pettersson is another who is better in windy conditions than Leishman. He was also much better at finding the green yesterday, so I'd expect him to score much better than Leishman today. Pat Perez to beat Marc Leishman -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
PP is another who is better in windy conditions. In fact, he is simply better than Leishman as his h2h record against the Australian shows: in their last 15 common events, Perez leads 13-1-1. Bill Haas to beat Stewart Cink -125 @ Paddy Power TIED
Cink has a poor record in windy conditions and has finished behind Haas in five of their last six common events. He is already two shots behind after the 1st round and I can only see that continuing. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (2pts): Tim Clark to beat Justin Hicks -138 @ Stan James LOST by 1
Opposing Hicks who starts the day alongside Clark in 6th place. For the South African, this is a continuation of the form that he showed last week (11th in the Masters) and on this course (nine cuts made in ten attempts), but not for Hicks who has missed his last two cuts and has never previously started the final round of a PGA Tour event inside the top-10. On the one occasion that he started the third round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 (2013 Farmers Insurance Open), he shot 80-74 over the weekend to finish 73rd. On the one occasion that he has started the second round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 (2008 U.S. Open), he then shot 80 in the next round as well. Pat Perez to beat Camilo Villegas -116 @ Bet365 TIED
On just one occasion has Villegas started the final round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 - 2012 Children's Miracle Network Classic - and he shot 74 to drop from 5th to 28th on that day. Without a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour for over 2 1/2 years, I expect him to struggle today, particularly as he ranks poorly in greens in regulation this week. Bill Haas to beat Billy Horschel +100 @ Bet365 and Expekt [available generally] LOST by 2
Two players in good form - Haas has top-20 finishes in six of his last seven strokeplay events, Horschel has finished 2nd and 3rd in his last two starts - but this still represents only the 6th time that Horschel has been within five shots of the lead at the start of the final round. He is yet to win on this Tour whereas Haas has four wins in the last three seasons. In this position, I'll back the more experienced player. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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