18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-7; -7.48pts 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Brian Stuard to beat Graham DeLaet -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Opposing DeLaet who lies 2nd after the opening round. That was unexpected as he had missed the cut in both his previous visits to PGA National; his record in the two previous times that he has finished rd1 in the top-3 on the PGA Tour also suggests that he will struggle to stay there today. As for Stuard, he lies just one shot back in 6th place and looks much more likely to stay there. His record in 2013 reads: played 4, top-40 finishes 4, of which two were top-10 finishes.

Brendon De Jonge to beat Paul Casey -158 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 9
Casey has been making cuts this year on the European Tour, but not looking as competitive as he did at the end of last year. But that run of cuts made looks set to end this week as he lies eight shots off the cut line in next-to-last place. I don't expect him to bounce back with such an impossible task and it is not as though it would earn him entry into next week's Cadillac Championship. De Jonge is a long way ahead of him after rd1 and as well as two top-15 finishes this year, he can count a top-10 finish on this course (2010). It probably won't be enough for De Jonge to be at Doral next week either, but he should still be in Palm Beach Gardens on Sunday.

Martin Kaymer to beat Russell Henley -105 @ Bet365  WON by 5
Backing Kaymer in this matchup. He is the better player and has shown good form this year with just one finish (of four) outside the top-10. By contrast, rookie Henley won the Sony Open in Hawaii, but has since to earn a top-50 finish in a strokeplay event and exited at the 2nd round last week. A poor round will see him out of next week's Cadillac Championship, so there is some pressure on him even though he is down in 30th place on the leaderboard.

Greg Chalmers to beat Ryan Palmer +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 2
I don't see why Chalmers would be the underdog in this matchup. He comes into the event in good form, finishing in the top-10 last time out, whereas Palmer has missed his last two cuts. Chalmers has finished ahead of his opponent in six of their last eight common events and in all three previous occasions that they have both played in this event. Chalmers is already ahead after rd1 and I expect him to stay there.

Sung-Yul Noh to beat Brendan Grace -135 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 4
In second place after rd1 is an impressive achievement for Grace - he has only twice previously finished any round on the PGA Tour or WGC event inside the top-15. On both occasions, he then shot 74 in the next round to drop well down the leaderboard. Noh's 6th place position is more expected - he was 2nd after the opening round last year and has top-30 finishes in three of his last four starts.

Round 3 play (4pts):

Graham DeLaet to beat Brian Stuard +100 @ Bet365  WON by 2
Reversing yesterday's play after seeing their performances in rd2. DeLaet fell just one place to 3rd and is in the penultimate group today, so doesn't have the pressure of being in the lead group, whereas Stuard fell out of the top-10. They have played at the weekend 19 times in common events since 2010; Stuard has shot the lower score just six times.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Charles Howell to beat Geoff Ogilvy -110 @ Stan James  LOST by 9

Lee Westwood to beat Geoff Ogilvy -144 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 5

Rickie Fowler to beat Geoff Ogilvy -150 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5

Charles Howell to beat Russell Henley -125 @ Bet365  LOST by 8

Nicholas Thompson to beat Tom Gillis -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Too short on time today for reasonings :(