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6-2; +8.08pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Michael Thompson to beat Russell Henley -102 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
I still believe that Henley is overpriced since the win in his season-opening event in Hawaii - he has recorded just two top-50 finishes in six strokeplay events since that win. Thompson, by contrast, has been performing far better since the Tour moved eastwards - he won the Honda Classic and finished 8th in the Cadillac Championship. With course experience on his side - he finished 24th here two years ago - against none for Henley, I make Thompson the favourite in this matchup. John Senden to beat Bo Van Pelt +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes and Paddy Power] TIED
BVP has disappointed this year. His best finish in seven starts in 2013 is 16th and for a player ranked 25th in the World Rankings that is a poor return. He hasn't played here since missing the cut in 2010, so it looks unlikely that he will improve his 2013 form this week. Senden has finished ahead of him each of their last four strokeplay events and has finished in the top-35 in each of his six visits to the Tournament Course at Redstone. As with Thompson, I believe the wrong player is being favoured by the oddsmakers. Round 2 plays (2pts): Sang-Moon Bae to beat Paul Casey -155 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 7
Casey is a former Houston Open champion on this course, but that was back in 2009 and that was a different Paul Casey. The current Paul Casey missed the cut on his return here last year and has a scoring average of 74.86 on the PGA Tour this year. With eight cuts made from nine starts this year, Bae should certainly be able to capitalise on Casey's struggles. Steve Stricker to beat Rory McIlroy +110 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365 and William Hill] WON by 2
McIlroy is another who is struggling (95th in greens in regulation in rd1) and again he sits outside the cut line. Stricker also had a poor rd1 yesterday, but with top-5 finishes in all three starts this year and top-11 in four of his last six visits to the Tournament Course at Redstone, he looks far more likely to bounce back today. Bill Haas to beat Jimmy Walker -145 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Two players in good form who arrested poor histories on this course to finish day one inside the top-10. The difference is that Walker did it in the calm conditions in the morning; Haas did it in the windier conditions in the afternoon when the scoring average was 1.52 shots higher than in the morning. With the forecast the same for today, I'll back the morning player. J.J. Henry to beat Matt Every -130 @ 5Dimes WON by 5
Two players at the bottom of the leaderboard. For Every, it is no surprise: he has missed the cut here on both previous visits and in three of the last four weeks. For Henry, it is a surprise: he has made the cut in four of the last five years and in seven of eight starts this year. On that basis, I'll back Henry as the more likely to bounce back. John Senden to beat Jonas Blixt -110 @ Stan James TIED
Senden remains one of my go-to players before the cut. His record on this course was highlighted above; his dominance of Blixt iis illustrated by a 11-4 h2h record since the start of last season. In terms of the pre-cut rounds, that dominance is further confirmed by a 21-6-3 h2h record againt Blixt in rd1 and rd2 over the same period. Round 3 play (4pts): Bob Estes to beat Boo Weekley +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 1
It may be a few years since his last top-10 on this course, but Estes still has three top-10 finishes in seven starts on the Tournament Course at Redstone. Currently 18th, he has a chance to make it four from eight and continue the orm that has seen him record top-40 finishes in five of six starts this year. Weekley does have a couple of top-10 finishes this year, but they are both from off-the-pace. When in contention at this stage, he record is not too impressive. In the last ten occasions that he has finished 36 holes in the top-10, he has fallen out of the top-10 after the 3rd round in eight of those ten. So, little wonder that Estes has a 13-3-1 h2h advantage over Weekley in weekend rounds over the last two years. Round 4 plays (2pts): Cameron Tringale to beat Kevin Chappell -158 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 3
Tringale starts the final in the top-10 for the ninth time on the PGA Tour: he has shot a sub-70 final round in seven of the previous eight occasions. Together with a top-10 finish on this course last year and also two weeks ago in Tampa, this week's leader in the GIR stats looks set for another top-10 finish. For Chappell, confidence cannot be high after missing his last five cuts. Cameron Tringale to beat Angel Cabrera -120 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365] TIED
Cabrera is another who has been playing well below his best: his best finish in six starts this year is 30th. With a 16-3-0 h2h record in his favour since the start of 2011, Tringale should be a stronger favourite in this matchup. Lee Westwood to beat Billy Horschel -150 @ Stan James [available generally] LOST by 4
Westwood is yet another who has been playing below his best, but he still has top-10 finishes in the Dubai Desert and Honda Classics and he does have a good record on this course: top-30 finishes in each of the last four years. I'll back him to continue the better form that he has shown this week over a player that has made every cut this year, but has been finishing further down the leaderboard as each week progresses. Lee Westwood to beat Louis Oosthuizen -104 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
In his previous three events to this event, Oosthuizen has missed two cuts and exited the World Match Play at the 1st round. He does start the final round alongside Westwood in 7th place, but ranks 48th in greens in regulation so his game is clearly far from the level that it should be. Keegan Bradley to beat Bill Haas -123 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
With four missed cuts from four previous visits to the Tournament Course at Redstone, Haas is an unlikely leader at the start of the final round. So I'll certainly oppose him with a player who has finished 4th, 7th and 3rd in his last three events and finished 4th here last year. |
