18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

6-3; +5.80pts 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Zach Johnson to beat Aaron Baddeley -150 @ Bet365  WON by 2
Badds continued his ball-striking of 2012 yesterday - he ranked 117th on the PGA Tour in ball-striking last year and yesterday he ranked 145th in driving distance, 82nd in driving accuracy, 80th in greens in regulation and 56th in scrambling. He really needed his putter to be hot yesterday and it was - he finished the day in 4th place. I don't expect his putter to be quite so hot two days in a row, particularly when he hasn't played in a Tour event for over three months. Johnson's ball-striking was much better yesterday, ranking 12th in driving accuracy, 3rd in greens in regulation and 1st in scrambling. On that basis, and having already played in two Tour events this year, he looks far more likely to repeat last year's top-10 finish in this event.

Greg Chalmers to beat Cameron Tringale -150 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Ladbrokes, Expekt and BetVictor] [2pts]  WON by 4
Chalmers led the field in greens in regulation yesterday to finish the day in 4th place. Given that he finished 11th in this event two years ago and has missed just one cut in his last 17 events, I don't expect him to fall too far from his current position. He has finished ahead of Tringale in their last four common events and I see no reason why this should change this week.

Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated):

Ricky Barnes to beat Kevin Stadler +120 @ BetVictor [available generally] [4pts]  LOST by 1
Opposing Stadler who is one shot ahead of Barnes in 6th place, but this is not a position from which he tends to play well: he has failed to break par in rd3 in seven of the last eight times that he started the weekend inside the top-10. With just one top-50 finish in five previous attempts in this event, it appears unlikely that he can maintain his current form into the weekend.

Brian Stuard to beat James Hahn -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 10
Playing the easiest course today, this should be a good opportunity for Hahn to consolidate his position at the top of the leaderboard, but the pressure of leading a PGA Tour event should be far stronger than any 'easy course' effect. He has never previously led a PGA Tour event after any round; he has led a Web.com Tour event after rd1 and then shot 74 the next day, ultimately finishing 11th; he has twice led a Web.com Tour event after three rounds, but failed to convert either into victories. Stuard, in good form with his 5th place finish last week, should be far more likely to benefit from the easier setup today.

Russell Henley to beat Harris English -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]  LOST by 4
I don't see why Henley should be the underdog in this matchup. He slipped from 4th to 15th yesterday, but he was playing the toughest course of the week, and there can be no questions about either his form after his win last week or the finish to his 2012 season on the Web.com Tour. At three shots off the lead, he is certainly not out of contention, and in terms of this matchup, he is already three shots better than his opponent so far this week.

Roberto Castro to beat Richard H. Lee -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Carib and WSEX]  WON by 1
In contrast to the Stuard/Hahn play, I will back the other rd2 leader in this matchup. Castro has similarly never led a PGA Tour event previously, but when he led the 2010 Wichita Open on the Web.com Tour after two rounds, he was still in the lead after the 3rd round, though eventually losing out in a playoff. I don't think he will still be leading after this round, but I still expect him to fare better than Lee who is one shot behind in 3rd place. In 25 previous PGA Tour events, he has never previously been inside the top-10 after two rounds and only retained his Tour Card for this year via Q-School. One more statistic shows which is the dominant player in this matchup: their h2h record reads 33-14 in favour of Castro.

Zach Johnson to beat Robert Garrigus -105 @ Bet365  LOST by 1
In 6th place, just two shots behind the inexperienced leaders, ranking 2nd in greens in regulation so far this week, and with the easiest course still to be played, it is little surprise that Johnson leads the betting for this event at the start of the 3rd round. It is therefore a little surprising that he is the underdog against Garrigus for this round alone.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Kevin Streelman to beat Sang-Moon Bae -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and BetVictor]  WON by 3
Both players in 7th place at the start of the final round, but that is less of a surprise for Streelman who already has a top-10 finish in this event (2010) and hasn't missed a cut in over six months. He has also finished ahead of Bae in eight of their last eleven common events, so the value does appear to lie with the American in this matchup.

Robert Garrigus to beat Jimmy Walker -125 @ BetVictor  WON by 1
Garrigus also has a good record in this event - 19th, 14th and 2nd (last year) in three of his four previous visits - and he is once again in the top-20 in this event. Also like Streelman, he dominates his h2h matchup - 7-2-1 in his last ten common events with Walker - so the player to back is obvious in this matchup as well.