18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

6-1; +17.25pts  (system plays: 3-3-0) 

No round 1 plays.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Charley Hoffman to beat Tommy Gainey -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  TIED
Hoffman was not at his best yesterday, but I expect him to bounce back today on a course on which he has finished in the top-15 in two of his last three visits. He has finished ahead of Gainey in 16 of their last 18 common events, so I don't see any problem with these odds.

John Huh to beat Chris Kirk +110 @ Stan James  TIED
Two players at opposite ends of the leaderboard, but Huh is another who is expected to bounce back today. This is the seventh time that he has been 9+ shots off the leade after rd1 this year and in the previous six occasions, he has shot 63-69-72-71-72-64 in rd2. From 14 shots off the pace in the Texas Open last year, he finished 2nd, so he clearly not a player who gives up after rd1. He ranked 28th in greens in regulation yesterday (Kirk was 55th), so he showed the game yesterday that he could correct his leaderboard position that was influenced by the much tougher conditions yesterday afternoon.

Jordan Spieth to beat Luke Guthrie -125 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
Only two players shot a higher score than Guthrie yesterday, but, unlike Huh, he played like his leaderboard position - he ranked 117th in greens in regulation, despite playing in the far easier conditions in the morning. With a poor rd2 record - he trails Spieth 2-10-1 h2h in rd2 this year - I don't think that he will be challenge to Spieth he has been in much better form recently.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Hoffman tb Stallings -110 (W); Hoffman tb Stanley -105 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Brendon De Jonge -138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 5
Stricker was prohibitively short in his rd1 and rd2 matches, but I'll certainly take these odds now that he has shown that he is playing just as well as any time in the last four years when he has finished 1st, 1st, 1st, 5th on this course. He is 7th (of 156) for driving accuracy and 19th for greens in regulation, which are unsually high rankings for him. De Jonge's profile is more typical of Stricker: he is 39th in driving accuracy and 59th in greens in regulation. Stricker is clearly playing much better than his opponent and this support for him is cearly widespread: the bookies rate his 2nd-favourite despite being 10th and three shots shy of the three leaders.

Steve Stricker to beat Zach Johnson -138 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 2
Johnson is one of those leaders and as defending champion heads Stricker in the market, but of the four times that he has previously held the 36-hole on the PGA Tour (and twice on the Web.com Tour) he has converted that into victory just once and he had a two-shot lead at this stage on that occasion. Stricker has finished ahead of Johnson in five of six common events this year and that without shooting a higher rd3 score.

Jordan Spieth to beat Boo Weekley -128 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 6
Two players who moved in opposite directions in rd2 despite Weekley playing in the easier morning conditions when the average score was over 0.5 shots better than in the afternoon. Spieth has better momentum and has shown much better form and consistency recently than Weekley who had missed his last two cuts (Spieth had finished 6th and 23rd).

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Molder tb Snyder -150 (L); De Jonge tb Streelman -116 (L)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jim Herman to beat Patrick Rodgers +100 @ Bet365 and ToteSport [available generally]  WON by 2
Easy to oppose Rodgers at this price. The Stanford University sophomore has played in four previous PGA & Web.com Tour events and missed the cut each time. He was leading the event yesterday for 15 minutes, but to be one-over-par over the last six holes saw him fall back down to leaderboard and he ended the day in 9th place. So today will be a much tougher experience so I'll certainly back Herman who is 2-for-2 in cuts made on this course and has made his last six cuts.

Jordan Spieth to beat Matt Jones -123 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 3
Successive 65s have seen Spieth move into the top-10 and continue his form that has already earned him seven top-10 finishes in 2013. Jones did finish 2nd last week from a similar position, but I'll back Spieth to continue his momentum and finish ahead of Jones for the 9th time in 13 common events in 2013 (and 6th time in eight common Sunday rounds).

David Hearn to beat Daniel Summerhays -105 @ ToteSport [available generally]  WON by 3
Not sure why Hearn isn't a strong favourite in this matchup. It is always difficult to follow up a really low score and particularly so when in the lead. He has lead one PGA Tour event at the start of the final round (2012 Mayakoba Classic) when he similarly had a two-shot lead: he shot 73 to finish 5th. These two have played in 21 common events over the last 12 months, but Summerhays didn't shoot the lower final round score in any of those events. I don't expect him to do so today.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Hoffmann tb Reed -125 (L); Kelly tb Thompson -105 (W)]