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6-8; -18.00pts Round 1 plays (4pts): Jason Dufner to beat Henrik Stenson -111 @ Bet365 WON by 3
Despite the recent controversy about 'Dufnering', I expect him to be making the headlines for the right reasons this week. He was the co-leader (with Fred Couples) after 36 holes last year, so with top-30 finishes in both his previous starts at Augusta National, this is a course that clearly suits his game. Stenson showed great form over his last two events to earn his place in this event for the eight successive year, but he has missed the cut in two of the last three years and in his 22 rounds at Augusta National, he is yet to break 70. Jason Dufner to beat Bill Haas +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Unibet and BetVictor] LOST by 1
Dufner dominates the h2h against Stenson 7-2-1 in strokeplay events since the start of last season and it is similar story in this matchup: 14-5-3. Unlike Stenson, Haas has made the cut in three previous visits, but like Stenson he yet yet to break 70 on this course (Dufner has done so twice in eight rounds). Similar to the first play and at better odds, Dufner is backed in this play. Nick Watney to beat Jason Day -105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365] LOST by 8
Like Dufner, Watney's performances have been a little under-par this year, but he has just once missed cut and this is his tenth event. His record at Augusta National is good - he has made the cut in all five visits - whereas Day has been hit-and-miss - 2nd two years ago, but withdrawing last year when six-over-par. But these are two players with different tournament trajectories which point to backing Watney at this stage of the event: whereas Day has a 10-3-2 h2h record against Watney in the final round since the start of 2012, in the first round, it is Watney who leads Day 13-3-4 over the same period. Round 2 plays (4pts): Adam Scott to beat Dustin Johnson -103 @ Expekt [also available @ Bet365 and Paddy Power] WON by 4
With a top-10 position at the end of day one, Scott looks set to secure his third top-10 finish in a row at Augusta National and continues to look the most likely Australian to break their duck in this event. He hasn't finished behind Johnson for over six months and given that Johnson's best finish in this event is 30th, I'll certainly back Scott at underdog odds. Adam Scott to beat Sergio Garcia -107 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 4
My systems had flagged up Garcia over Scott as a play for day one, but I discounted it as this was his first event back since he hurt his shoulder and his achilles in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He said after his round that he had no pain, but was not fully convincing. Either way, he is 1-for-15 when leading after round 1 and it has been nine years since he finished in the top-10 here. Tiger Woods to beat Justin Rose -159 @ Expekt LOST by 2Rose has finished ahead of
Tiger just once in seven previous visits to Augusta National and with Tiger having won three times already this year, the gap between the World #1 and #3 is pretty large at the moment. Tiger Woods to beat Luke Donald -185 @ 5Dimes [available generally] LOST by 1
And it is even wider between the World #1 and a free-falling #4. Donald does have three top-10 finishes in eight attempts on this course, but he has never really been right in the battle for leadership. With five bogeys on his card yesterday, it doesn't look as though he will reverse his declining fortunes this week either. Jason Day to beat Padraig Harrington -189 @ Unibet WON by 7
It was a good recovery yesterday from Day who was two-over-par after six holes - he finished the day in 13th place. Harrington moved in the opposite direction - he was 1-under-par after five holes, but shot 78 to finish the day in 82nd place. With the Irishman struggling with his short game, this should be a very short week for him. Round 3 play (6pts): Fred Couples to beat Angel Cabrera +100 @ Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 8
This is just the 11th time that Cabrera has started the weekend inside the top-5 in the last 5 years, with the exception of events in Argentina. On those ten previous occasions, he has broken 70 in the 3rd round just once and has averaged over 73 in the 3rd round. He does have a good record in The Masters - a winner in 2009 and three other top-10 finishes since 2000 - but Couples has been in better form recently, is also a past Masters Champion (1992), has finished in the top-15 in each of the last three years here and has finished ahead of Cabrera in six of the last years despite Cabrera's win in 2009. Round 4 plays (4pts): Justin Rose to beat Zach Johnson -125 @ Coral [available generally] WON by 1 Justin Rose to beat Lee Westwood -116 @ Bet365 LOST by 3 Sergio Garcia to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -110 @ Stan James LOST by 2 Justin Rose to beat Charl Schwartzel -125 @ Stan James LOST by 1 Lee Westwood to beat Nick Watney -125 @ Stan James WON by 1 Spent the last 15 minutes writing reasons for these plays, but then pressed the wrong button to not save the page. Typical of this week after the rd2 Tiger debacle! |
