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RESULT: 2-7, +10.29 Update after round 3: LAY Brandt Snedeker to a liability of 23pts @3.8 (i.e. stake 8.21pts) position now: Brandt Snedeker: +50.01 The Field: +4.56 Taking a little profit out of the Snedeker bet now, although I am still very hopeful that he can get over the line here. His first round play tee to green was somewhat patchy but he did what champions do and rescued a score. He steadied the ship in the second round with a more solid display and yesterday he played a magnificent patient game, posting a bogey free card in very difficult conditions to get him right where he wants to be: in the final 2 ball on Masters Sunday. He seems calm, positive and ready, however there are some talented and accomplished players around him and winning the Masters is a lot easier said than done! Hopeful of some return on the place markets bets too, with Scott in the bst position but Dufner and even Rose not out of it yet. ------------------------------------------- Additional place market plays: With it being a major liquidity is much higher than usual so we can venture in to the place markets.. BACK Justin Rose to finish in the top 5 to win 10pts @5.4 (i.e. stake 2.27pts) BACK Adam Scott to finish in the top 5 to win 10pts @6.8 (i.e. stake 1.72pts) BACK Jason Dufner to finish in the top 10 to win 10pts @6 (i.e. stake 2pts) Rose has an excellent record here and is now one of the established top players in world golf. He does still seem to struggle getting over the finish line, racking up five 2nd places since his last win, but his consistently high standard of play and finshes on the leaderboards makes him look an excellent bet for a top 5 this week. Adam Scott seems to plan his entire schedule around preparing for majors these days. The last two years have shown that he has worked out both how to produce his best form in these events and how to play Augusta. I still think there are question marks over if he can win after what happened at Royal Lytham but like Rose looks a great top 5 prospect. Dufner's course form may not look that great with a 30th and 24th place here but that disguises the fact that he led last year after two rounds, albeit the pressure caused him to implode over the weekend. It wasn't till after that though that he got his brace of wins in quick succession and since then he seems to be able to handle himself better when near the top of a leaderboard. Going for a top ten because I'm not sure he has been quite on his game enough this season to be able to push his way to the very highest reaches here. -------------------------------------------- BACK Brandt Snedeker to win 75pts @46 (i.e. stake 1.67pts) BACK Dustin Johnson to win 35pts @34 (i.e. stake 1.06pts) BACK Ryan Moore to win 100pts @240 (i.e. stake 0.42pts) BACK John Merrick to win 100pts @370 (i.e. stake 0.27pts) BACK Paul Lawrie to win 100pts @420 (i.e. stake 0.24pts) Snedeker has stated that he wishes he was coming in to this event off better form than 2 missed cuts, but that he thinks his game is in good shape, that he is completely injury and rust free and that he has never felt fresher coming to Augusta. In the past here he was often exhausted by the end of the week, and in his first two Masters efforts it showed: he shot 77 on Sunday both times. Now with his added experience and freshness coming in to the week he feels he can last the distance. He also says he feels mentally prepared to win a major, drawing a lot on The Open last year, in particular playing with Tiger in the last round. Also his Tour Championship and Pebble wins he says have confirmed that he now knows how to win the hard way - from the front rather than coming from off the pace as his 3 prior wins had all been. I think he looks like a player absolutely primed to take the next step, and the injury break could well be a blessing in disguise not just for him but for backers too. Remember he was 16/1 for this in the antepost markets not that long ago. To be able to get 46 now is kind of incredible and I think is a great price. Dustin Johnson is a rare player in that on his day he is capable of matching anything the very best can offer. He also has many off days too and is something of an enigma for betting purposes. He islargely this big a price because of his not very great Masters form so far - 3 outings with nothing better than 30th place in 2009. But look at others who have done well here and their prior Masters records: Bubba 20-42-38-1 Zach Johnson mc-32-1 Mike Weir 28-27-24-1 Louis Oosthuizen mc-mc-mc-2 Bernhard Langer mc-31-1 and even Phil Mickelson, the undisputed top Augusta specialist, started here 46-34. My point is that 2 or 3 mediocre efforts to start with here don't neccesarily mean that is the way they will continue. it is a course the players generally have to learn how to handle. If this event was to be played many times I expect DJ would finish outside the top 30 more than half of the time, but in my opinion he would win it one in every 20-25 times and on that basis at this price he is value. Moore, Merrick and Lawrie are much more speculative plays and to be honest I'm not sure I can envisage any of them actually donning a green jacket at the end of the week (although it's not impossible!) but all have at least snippets of decent form here and I am hoping may get themselves in contention and offer a chance to trade out at favourable odds. Moore has never missed the cut in 4 visits and has a 13th and 14th to his name. Merrick finished 6th here on his debut in 2009 and after making his breaktrhough win earlier this season his confidence should be high. Paul Lawrie was in the top ten all the way from rounds 1 to 3 last year and only blew out on the Sunday. His excellent chipping and putting makes him well suited to the course and a year on with that experience under his belt I'm hoping he can go one better and stick around for the full 4 rounds this time. |
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