|
2-2; -0.20pts No round 1 plays. No round 2 plays. Round 3 plays (4pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Tim Clark -127 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] WON by 3
I'll take these odds on a player who holds a 12-1-0 h2h lead against his opponent since the Humana Challenge in January. Since Clark finished 2nd in his season-opening Sony Open in Hawaii, he has secured just one top-10 finish in 21 strokeplay events, so I don't expect him to hold onto his current top-10 position. Chris Kirk to beat Kevin Chappell -125 @ Bet365 WON by 6
This is another one-side matchup with Kirk holding a 12-4-1 h2h record against Chappell over the last nine months. Kirk does have the added pressure of leading the event, but in the previous occasion that he has been in the lead after 36 holes (2011 Houston Open), he still shot two sub-70 rounds over the weekend and finished 2nd. Round 4 plays (4pts): Charles Howell to beat Zach Johnson +120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, William Hill and Carib] LOST by 4
A good price to back the more in-form player. Johnson did play well in the Playoffs, but in his one event in the last six weeks, he finished 40th in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Howell finished 5th in that event and 7th in the PGA Tour event in Asia the following week. Secondly, both players have competed in all three years of this event and Howell has finished ahead of Johnson every time, in particular finishing 6th in 2010 and 7th last year. He is already ahead of Johnson so far this week and I expet him to stay there. Y.E. Yang to beat Blake Adams -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 5
Opposing Adams who has struggled with injury this year, being unable to play after withdrawing from the Farmers Insurance Open in January until his return (a missed cut) in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open last month. He had to withdraw before the start of his next start - the Frys.com Open - with a hip injury and just made the cut on the number this week. Yang has hit the ball straighter and further off the tee and hit more greens than Adams so far this week, so even though his form hasn't been great, but good enough to finish 3rd in Japan six weeks ago, he should beat a struggling Adams in this basement battle. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
