18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

2-5; -13.70pts  (system plays: 0-1-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Brendon De Jonge to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -125 @ Stan James  LOST by 3
Experience is key at Muirfield Village and GFC doesn't have any. He is also completing a four-week stretch of Atlantic-crossing - three weeks ago, he missed the cut at Sawgrass, then exited in the first knckout round in the matchplay event in Bulgaria, before finishing 62nd last week at Wentworth. He had been 3rd after rd1 last week, but then shot 75-74-75 to drop so far down the leaderboard. De Jonge is in goof form with five top-25 finishes in his last seven starts, took a one-week break from Tour golf two weeks ago and has finishes of 12th, 63rd and 38th in the last three years here.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Camilo Villegas to beat Seung-Yul Noh -125 @ Stan James  WON (Noh wd)
Opposing Noh who lies outside the top-100 after the 1st round. Two missed cuts, a 52nd place finish in three previous attempts at Muirfield Village and a failure to break par in any round suggests that this is not a course that suits his game. And with a best finish of 46th in 11 events (in 13 weeks) since the Tour moved to Florida, he is hardly showing the form to break par today either.

Lee Westwood to beat Rory McIlroy -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST (Westwood wd)
McIlroy's play was poor last week and it was again yesterday despite playing in the much easier morning conditions. Set to play in the windier conditions this afternoon and already outside the top-100, he looks set to make the cut - he has never bounced back to make the cut from such a low leaderboard position in his career to date. So I'll oppose him with a player who is on a run of five consecutive top-10 finishes and certainly played better than his opponent yesterday despite shooting only two shots better.

Adam Scott to beat Rory McIlroy -125 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365]  LOST by 1
And I'll oppose him with the Masters Champions who beat him by five shots yesterday. Only the leader, Charl Schwartzel, hit more greens in regulation than Scott yesterday so his game is clearly in far better shape than that of McIlroy's.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Senden tb Cink -111 (T); De Jonge tb Fernandez-Castano -125 (L)]  

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Bill Haas -105 @ Stan James  LOST by 1
With a best finish of 30th in seven attempts, it was a surprise to see Haas as the 2nd round leader. He is now down to 4th and I expect him to fall further with such poor course history (and missed cuts in his last two starts). Schwartzel has been very impressive this week (top-10 for dirving distance, accuracy and greens in regulation) and this is clearly a course that suits given his course history as well. 

Bud Cauley to beat Camilo Villegas -130 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Both players more than ten shots off the pace, so likely motivation is the key factor here. Villegas has been in this position seven times since the start of last season and shot an over-par final round in six of those seven occasions; in the two occasions this year that Cauley has been more than ten shots off the lead at the start of the final round, he shot 66 (Humana Challenge) and 65 (Phoenix Open).

Scott Piercy to beat Gary Woodland -125 @ 5Dimes, Bet365 and Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 3
It has been over a year since Woodland shot a lower 4th round score than Piercy and given that he ranks outside the top-50 for greens in regulation this week (Piercy is 5th), it appears unlikely that he is playing well enough to end that drought today.